Up Next: Housing Prices, Consumer Confidence and GDP

Today, the Conference Board releases critical consumer confidence data for July. Economists expect it to hold near steady at 81-the June reading was 81.4.

Wall Street follows consumer confidence closely because it drives stock prices, but the auto sector and economists pay attention because it motivates new car showroom traffic. Along with new home construction, which drives pickup truck sales, consumer confidence is a very critical indicator for Midwestern manufacturing.

The S&P Index of May housing prices-the most reliable indicator of recent home prices movements-is expected to show a big year-over-year gain of 12.3 percent, but May prices were pushed by contracts written before the recent surge in mortgage rates.

Tomorrow, Commerce reports second quarter GDP, and that is expected to disappoint. Consumer spending, less cars, has been slowing. Autos compromise 20 percent of the economy, and have been driven mostly by replacement of vehicles worn out during the financial crisis and truck sales in response to the housing boom.

Rising mortgage rates will dampen truck transactions prices. Also, a weakened yen artificially advantages Japanese imports of cars. All raise concerns about an expected rebound in GDP for the second half-growth will likely be slower than Wall Street economists expect.

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data…

	Forecast	Prior Observation	Consensus
Week of July 29
July 30
S&P Case/Shiller Index – May
Twenty City M/M	2.6	2.5	2.0
Twenty City M/M – SA	1.3	1.7	1.3
Twenty City Y/Y	12.4	12.0	12.3
Consumer Confidence – July	81.3	81.4	81.0
July 31
ADP Employment Report – July	165K	188	179
GDP – Q2 (a)	1.4%	1.8	1.1
GDP Implicit Price Deflator	1.0	1.3	1.1
PCE		1.0
PCE Deflator		1.0
PCE Core Deflator		1.3
Employment Cost Index – Q2	0.5%	0.3	0.4
Employment Cost Index – Y/Y	1.6	1.9
Chicago PMI – July	53.5	51.6	54.0
FMOC	0.125%	0.125	0.125
Augsut 1
Initial Unemployment Claims	345K	343	345
Auto Sales* – July	15.79M	15.96	15.80
Car Sales	7.81	7.95
Truck Sales	8.01	8.01
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence
Markit PMI Manufacturing Index – July	53.2	51.9	53.1
ISM (Mfg) – July	52.0	50.9	52.0
ISM Prices	54.0	52.5	54.2
Construction Spending – June	0.5%	0.5	0.4
August 2
Nonfarm Payrolls – July	183K	195	175
Private	189	202	187
Core Private*	149	166
Manufacturing	2	-6
Unemployment	7.5	7.6	7.5
Average Workweek	34.5	34.5	34.5
Average Hourly Earnings	0.1	0.4	0.2
*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services
Personal Income – June	0.4%	0.5	0.4
Personal Spending	0.4	0.3	0.4
Factory Orders – June	2.5%	2.1	2.3
Durable Goods Orders	4.5	3.7
Nondurable Goods Orders	0.7	0.7
Week of August 5
August 5
ISM Services – July	53.0	52.2	53.0
ISM Prices	52.5	52.2	52.5
ISM Business Activity	52.5	51.7
August 6
International Trade – June	-$44.2B	-45.0	-44.1
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism	47.5	47.1
August 7
Consumer Credit – June	$12.0	19.6	15
August 8
August 9
Wholesale Inventories – June	0.4%	-0.5	0.2
Wholesale Sales	0.8	1.6	0.5

Peter Morici is a professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland School, and a widely published columnist. Follow him on Twitter.