The CorruptMedia looks at Romney spending today in Virginia and spins a Narrative that says Romney should already have VA sewn up — so, you know, he’s losing. The CorruptMedia then tells us Obama’s stops are merely campaign stops. Even a stop with just a few days to go in a state Obama should’ve put away weeks ago: Nevada.
A new poll released today from Survey USA helps shed some light on why Democrats still have reason to worry about Nevada. Obama might be up 50-46% (within the margin of error), but this is really a Registered Voter (RV) poll, not a Likely Voter (LV). Only 6% of RVs were screened out (the norm is 20-30%), which is why the overall poll has an absurd D+10 sample.
During the wave election of 2008, Obama only enjoyed a D+8 turnout advantage in Nevada. The 2010 midterms were only D+2.
For a number of reasons spelled out here, D+10 is an absolutely outrageous sample contrived to give Obama an artificial lead. Believe me, this poll is good news for Romney.
More bad news for Obama is that even within this piece of juicy-juice, Obama’s favorability/unfavorability is tied at 44%. Romney is right there with him at 42-46%.
Democrats should also be worried about early voting in Nevada:
Democrats’ leads in Nevada, North Carolina and Iowa continue to shrink. Even as Democrats will assuredly turn out more early voters in all three states, they are on pace to gain less from early voting than they did in 2008.
Bottom line: In Nevada, a state he won by 12 points four years ago, Obama is behind his 2008 early vote margin and only up four in a juiced poll showing a Democratic turnout advantage that in no way reflects reality.
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