The good news in today’s ARG poll of Ohio is not that Romney’s leading 48-47%, it’s that the party ID breakdown doesn’t reflect anything nearing reality. There’s just no way Democrats will enjoy a nine-point turnout advantage over Romney in Ohio. But in order to believe Romney’s only up by one, that’s exactly what you have to assume. Here’s the ARG sample:
Democrats (42%)
Republicans (33%)
Independents (25%)
The poll also shows Romney is also winning Independents by a full 20 points, 57-37%.
Romney’s winning men by four points, 50-46%, and only losing women by three, 48-45%.
But Romney’s only up one?
Not likely.
In better news, 100% of this poll was taken after the release of Friday’s suspicious jobs numbers that supposedly gave Obama a boost. This poll also isn’t an outlier. We now have three polls showing Romney statistically tied in OH and two show Obama well below the 50% mark that’s crucial to any incumbent.
Survey USA just released another poll that has the race at 45-44% for Obama, but again, an incumbent at 45% four weeks out is in real trouble.
The momentum is also with Romney. When it comes to polling, the trend is everything.
Follow John Nolte on Twitter @NolteNC