This morning, my colleague John Nolte pointed out the ridiculous Democrat turnout assumptions in Quinnipiac University’s latest poll for CBS/NYT. To believe Quinnipiac’s numbers, we’d have to believe that Democrat turnout will not only increase over 2008, but reach levels not seen in the modern political era. Quinnipiac’s own poll numbers put a lie to that assumption.
Quinnipiac’s poll purports to be a Likely Voter (poll), meaning it’s a poll of those most likely to show up on election day. It is entirely possible that a poll of Adults or even Registered Voters (RV) could have a heavy Democrat edge and still be fairly accurate. For an LV poll to have such a massive Democrat turnout, then Democrats must be fired up and ready to walk across broken glass to vote. And GOP voters must be looking for a rock to crawl under. But, Quinnipiac’s own poll shows the opposite is true.
In all three state polls, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, the GOP holds a clear edge over Democrats on voting enthusiasm. In PA, the GOP voter enthusiasm edge is almost 20 points. 45% of GOP voters say they are more enthusiastic about voting this year against 28% of Dems who are more enthusiastic. The GOP voter enthusiasm has increased 10 points since the beginning of August, while the Dem number is essentially unchanged.
Its a similar story in OH, where 43% of GOP voters say they are more enthusiastic, against 33% of Dems who are. GOP numbers are up six points since the beginning of August while the Dem voters are unchanged.
In FL, GOP voters have a four point edge. 52% say they are more enthusiastic, against 48% of Dems.
If we are to believe the historically high turnout for Dems implied by these polls, these numbers should be reversed. It boggles the mind that Quinnipiac would build a turnout model for Dems to exceed 2008 levels when it knows GOP voters are more enthusiastic than Democrats. It is simply impossible for Democrats to achieve such a lop-sided turnout when the GOP has the clear edge on enthusiasm. This is a corrupt poll.
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