On Wednesday, Marquette University released its latest poll of the battleground state of Wisconsin. Their last poll, taken in the middle of August, found Obama will a slim 3-point lead over Romney, 49-46. This poll, however, found Obama moving into a commanding 14-point lead among likely voters, 54-40. The poll also found that Tammy Baldwin, Democrat candidate for Senate, who has trailed in every poll, moved out to a 9-point lead among likely voters over Tommy Thompson. Curiously, this poll was unlike every other poll Marquette has conducted this year.
The last three polls Marquette has conducted of the presidential race have had a sample of D+2-4. Their polls throughout the year have ranged D+2-6. Their poll right before the June recall election of Scott Walker used a sample of D+5 and accurately predicted the election results. The sample for this latest poll? D+11.
That is one hell of a spike in Democrat voters. Keep in mind, this poll was conducted before the release of Romney’s “47%” video remarks, so that couldn’t have caused this mysterious spike in Democrat voters.
Marquette University should explain why they made a massive change in the poll sample. Last month’s poll, which found Obama up by just 3, used a D+2 sample. That sample had been largely consistent all year and had already accurately predicted an election just a few months ago. Why the sudden instinct to inflate the Dem sample by a factor of 5? With that kind of change, you’re really going to have to show your work.
Obama has enjoyed a fairly consistent 5-6 point lead throughout the year in Marquette polling. Then, last month, his lead was just 3 points. So, now, apparently, the University inflates their sample and lifts Obama into a 14-point lead. An interesting tell is that there is essentially no change in Obama’s lead, whether an RV or an LV screen is used.
I call BS on this. Even if there is some movement towards Democrats, the electorate in WI was only D+6 in 2008. It certainly didn’t move to D+11 in just a couple months. Partisan identity doesn’t move that fast in American politics. Why did the school only radically change its sample after Romney began erasing Obama’s lead in the polls?
The 2012 campaign has already caused the media to shred whatever credibility they had left. Looks like Marquette University is getting in line to do the same.
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