Even with Good Showings in Missouri and Minnesota, Santorum Surge Still Unlikely

Santorum: Not Much of an Opening for the Former Senator

Several sources are predicting a Santorum surge in Missouri and Minnesota tonight, but there’s reason for pause before we order out the “Rick 2012” bumper stickers. Caucuses depend on two things: money and organization. Santorum has neither. Despite an impressive win in Iowa, it is getting harder and harder for him to keep up, because he is second to last in the delegate count with only eight so far.   That may well change tonight, but here are some reasons to be skeptical of a Santorum win, even if he manages to pull off a victory in Missouri or Minnesota:

1. Even if Santorum wins in Missouri, it’s nothing more than a beauty contest. Knowing full well that their vote won’t have any effect on the delegate count, election officials are predicting that only 23% of party loyalists will bother showing up to the polls, according to stl.today.com. Given that Newt Gingrich’s name isn’t on the ballot, Santorum is hoping to show that his victory in the Show Me State will show GOP activists he’s the best anti-Romney. “Protest vote” or not, Santorum needs the win, but what if he loses to Romney in a symbolic race?
2. Santorum isn’t on the ballot in several other states, including Indianaand Virginia, meaning he will forgo 46 and 49 delegates respectively. Santorum is also not on the ballot in Washington, D.C. and lacks full delegate slates in North Dakota, Ohio, and Illinois.

Polling is notoriously difficult for low-turn out caucuses, and Public Policy Polling, a Democratic polling outfit who has done the most recent (and only) poll with Santorum ahead, is notoriously bad at polling in general. In 2008, PPP predicted an Obama victory against Clinton in Pennsylvania, only to have Clinton win by nine or ten points. It’s hard to believe that a state that went two-to-one for Romney in its caucuses in 2008 would make it neck and neck this time around. Romney hasn’t changed all that much since 2008. The delegates from Minnesota are unpledged, meaning they can, of course, change their mind, and candidates will be less than willing to invest lots of time in getting their support. Yes, it is true that Santorum has high favorables–he is pushing 70 percent in some polls–but expect his rivals, Romney and Gingrich, to drag him down to the 40s with them if he does well.