Why the Bin Laden Killing May Not Boost Obama

From The National Journal:

But one expert on the region is warning against broad predictions today in assessing the impact of bin Laden’s death. “We need to be very cautious… in assuming it will now damage al Qaida and other Islamist extremist networks, or that we can predict the political and strategic consequences,” said Anthony H. Cordesman, in a commentary for the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Strategically, he said bin Laden’s death “might have been a decisive blow in 2001 or 2002” but “may have far less effect today” on al Qaeda’s ability to attack targets. He said nobody today can possibly know how the killing of bin Laden will play with potential terrorists or in Pakistan. “We need to be very careful about what bin Laden’s death will mean for relations with Pakistan and for the war in Afghanistan,” he said.

Far from helping Obama politically, the latest development could increase the pressure on him to get American troops out of Afghanistan. It will, said Cordesman, “raise new questions about whether the Afghan war can really put an end to al Qaida and other terrorist sanctuaries and lead some of those who oppose the war to state that the U.S. and its allies should now withdraw.”

Cordesman said “it will take weeks and possibly months” to assess the strategic impact.

So that new “Mission Accomplished” banner that Democrats would love to unfurl at the next Obama campaign event? Probably best to keep it in George Bush’s attic. Less than 48 hours after such an historic event is a little too early for declarations of victory.

Read the whole thing here.