Obama's Re-Election Strategy

Well, one thing is now clear. Barack Obama very much wants to be re-elected, and he is willing to do whatever it takes.

As I have already pointed out in anticipatory posts – first here, then here – he could not hire William M. Daley as his new White House Chief of Staff without eating a substantial helping of crow. Among Democrats, no one was as critical in public of the course chosen by Obama, Nancy Pelois, and Harry Reid in 2009 as was Daley. The op-ed he published in The Washington Post on Chrismas Eve, 2009 – just a few hours after Harry Reid jammed through the Senate a bill burdened with provisions known as the Cornhusker Kickback, the Connecticut Compromise, the Louisiana Purchase, and the Florida Flim-Flam – predicted that, if the Democratic Party followed through on what it had already done, it would not only be routed at the midterm elections in November, 2010; it would lay the foundations for “electoral disaster . . . in many elections to come.” I doubt that President Obama will step forward and publicly admit fault. That, as far as I can tell, he does not have in him. But before Daley took the job, he must have heard the President whisper the familiar words that this son of one Chicago mayor and brother of another first learned as an altar boy: “Mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa.”

In practice, this means that Daley will wield far more authority than was ever accorded to Rahm Emanuel. There are signs the he is already doing so. Reports indicate that Robert Gibbs’ departure is Daley’s doing and that Valerie Jarrett’s wings will be clipped. In these matters, Obama is utterly cold-blooded. As William Ayers and the Reverend Jeremiah Wright learned not so long ago, when circumstances change, this would-be Messiah is not loath to dispense with those hitherto near and dear. One aide is quoted as describing him as “the most unsentimental man I’ve ever met.”

Daley’s arrival at the helm also means that Obama has decided to pivot and reposition himself as a budget-cutter and a friend to big business. The left within the Democratic Party is now in an uproar, which will help the President far more than it will hurt him. If he is to present himself as the Comeback Kid, he will have to ditch his party in much the same manner as Slick Willie from Arkansas. John Boehner and Mitch McConnell will have to be ready to do business with one hand – while they are investigating malfeasance on the part of the administration with the other. Politically, we are in for a battle royal.

To a considerable degree, the outcome will turn on contingencies. The stock market is up, business leaders seem sanguine, and investor confidence is high. As I argued in an earlier post, however, there are storm clouds on the horizon. Housing prices are dropping, and some observers believe that they are still overpriced by twenty percent. If they continue to fall, more homeowners will find that they owe more than the house is worth – and many of these will default on their mortgages. Moreover, almost all of the states and a great many of the municipalities in the country have large unfunded obligations which will soon at least in part come due, and some of our most populous and wealthy states – Illinois, New York, and California among them – have massive deficits in their current operating budgets. They will have to cut jobs and services, and they may be forced to raise taxes. Neither expedient will speed the recovery. We could easily slip back into recession – and if we do or if, as is highly likely, unemployment remains high, the President will get the blame.

To the discontent derived from the economy, we can add that attendant on Obamacare – which grows more unpopular with every passing month. If the Republicans in the House vote to repeal the bill and if the Democrats in the Senate block the bill, President Obama and his party will be made to pay. If the bill passes both the House and the Senate and President Obama vetoes it, he alone will bear the blame. The situation favors the Republicans. The President is vulnerable.

But it is not sufficient that opportunity present itself. Someone has to have the moxie to seize it – and the time has come for reflection on the question of the hour. Who within the Republican stable is fit to lead?

I myself would rule out Romney, Huckabee, and Gingrich. As I noted in an earlier post, though each has undoubted virtues, each has baggage. I am of two minds about Sarah Palin. Her political instincts are brilliant. But I would regard her as a risky pick.

Who else is there? I can think of some names. What are the pluses and minuses? Speak your minds.