Based upon current laws and regulations, there is a reasonable path to victory for Republican Joe Miller in the contentious U.S. Senate race in Alaska; however, with a very pro-Murkowski Lt. Governor, Craig Campbell, operating much like a state Secretary of State, a liberal court system and Murkowski tapping members of Bush’s Florida 2000 legal team, it’s unlikely to be as straightforward as it should be.
According to recent numbers via the Washington Post, there are 83,201 write-in votes which, if all were legitimately cast for Murkowski, she would lead Miller, who stands at 69,762, by 13439 votes. Citing a late nineties race for Governor in which the Republican backed nominee ran as a write-in candidate, as much as 5% of all write-in ballots could be invalid. Were that percentage to apply here, as many as 4,000 potential Murkowski votes could be invalidated, bringing Murkowski’s presumed advantage down to under 10,000 votes.
Additionally, the Division of Elections has received 26,306 absentee ballots still needing to be counted and 10,645 questioned ballots. It’s also possible that some double voting occurred given that some votes believe to favor Murkowski may have been sent into the wrong precinct, while some number of those voters may have also had their votes counted in their home district. A careful final counting should address any issues there.
It is quite possible that a combination of the above factors could close the gap, providing Miller with a slight edge. And then there is the issue of voter intent. Alaska does have a clear standard in that regard, one it is not believed the department of elections will adhere to, just as they have opted to change other voting regulations on the fly in a manner that favors Murkowski.
The Division of Elections has already said they would not count write-in votes cast for Joe Miller, a decision contrary to existing regulations. Regulations also state that, along with writing in Murkowski’s name correctly, individuals casting a write-in ballot must have also filled in the circle for write-in vote for the ballot to be legitimate.
If all existing guidelines for voting in Alaska were followed, already not the case, unfortunately, the Miller campaign feels confident that they would come out on top at the end of the day. But, as with other elections, this one may yet be decided by capricious decisions made by the powers that be, as opposed to the rule of existing law and regulations.
What the Alaska Senate race clearly is not, is over. Stay tuned for more reports as warranted going forward.