Our mantra, “We all go forward together, or it all ends right here!” For the past 18 months, I’ve been saying that Republicans in Illinois could start winning elections if the establishment/patronage wing married the reform wing of the party. Since the Illinois “gravy train” was being derailed by its functional bankruptcy, establishment Republicans finally got the message. And, today, we see the culmination of this unfolding at the ballot box and in the volunteer centers.
Government reform in Illinois has a fighting chance. Here’s the bell-weather state house races on reform…
In a central Illinois state senate district, 9-12 groups formed over the past year boast 3,000 members and have lifted Sam McCann to a slim pre-election lead vs. Sen. Deanna Demuzio. The Demuzio family held this state senate seat for over 35 years. In desperation, Sen. Demuzio spent over $2.4 million and set the record for the most money ever spent by a candidate in a statehouse race. McCann spent $1 million and has the energy of the movement plus the “wave”. Prediction: Sam McCann by 3 percentage points.
In a state representative district outside of St. Louis, businessman Dwight Kay is running with a fierce ground game of seasoned volunteers. The Kay volunteer armies go all the way back to 1998 when the last “reformer” was elected statewide, U.S. Senator Peter Fitzgerald. Kay’s opponent is Jay Hoffman, an 18 year incumbent and best known to be corrupt Governor Rod Blagojevich’s “floor leader”. Hoffman started the election season with $1 million in the bank and he has had to spend it all. Prediction: Dwight Kay wins by 2 percentage points.
In the 43rd state senate district, the now nationally recognized “One Mom” vs. the Machine, Cedra Crenshaw spent $200,000 vs. Sen. AJ Wilhelmi reportedly spending $1 million.
The district is a 2-1 blue-collar democrat district and the Crenshaw campaign feels like they won the early voting period. A full half of the early voters were already pre-identified as Crenshaw supporters by campaign volunteer phone bankers! In pre-election polls, Crenshaw was trailing by 5 points. But, that entire deficit was contained in the polling segment amongst the “lowest intensity” voters. Thus, turn-out is the key. This race is a true bell-weather of tea party impact, as the district is a Democrat plus 26 district! IF CRENSHAW WINS, REFORM WALKS WITH A BIG STICK AND A BULLY PULPIT. Prediction: Cedra Crenshaw by 1 point.
My organization, For The Good of Illinois PAC, opened a Lake County Project office with over 25 co-sponsoring organizations. We did phone banking, walking, literature distribution, sign placement, networking and organizing for all Republican Lake County candidates. In the state representative race, our prediction is that Dan Sagrue will pull an election day surprise and beat the incumbent. This will be a testament to the Lake County tea party volunteers, 25 plus organizations, our coordinator Maria Rodriguez and rank/file Republicans pulling together in victory.
On November 2, 2010, the Illinois Republican party finally got its act together.
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