After the dust settles from the next Tuesday’s elections, pay close attention to Michigan. The “Great Lakes State” is about to undergo an extreme makeover from a burned-out “Blue State” to a reborn “Red State.”
Democrats have been the dominant political party since 2002, when then-Attorney General Jennifer Granholm was elected governor, succeeding three-term Republican governor John Engler. Pundits and party activists began whispering about the possibility of amending the Constitution so she, a Canadian, could run for president. There was even an “Amend for Jen” movement!
Four years later, she was re-elected in a landslide and Democrats took control of the state House of Representatives. Granholm was a rising star in the Democratic Party.
The Democrats’ momentum carried over into 2008. Conditions were so unfavorable for Republicans that John McCain pulled the plug on his Michigan operation five weeks before Election Day. Republicans took a further drubbing that year and despondency set it. At the time, being a Republican in Michigan was about as popular as being a Republican in San Francisco.
But given Granholm’s utter economic ineptitude – she can boast of holding the highest unemployment rate in the nation for over 40 months – coupled with the fact that Democrats in Washington majorly overplayed their hand, the state appears to be shaping up completely different this year. Her job approval has been stuck in the 30s for months and her star has crashed to the ground. She’s no asset to Democratic candidates.
In a state that Republicans pulled the plug on in 2008, Republican gubernatorial candidate Rick Snyder has consistently held a twenty point lead over his fire-breathing opponent Virg Bernero, also known as “America’s Angriest Mayor.” Bernero is the one who took the lead in demanding the auto company bailouts and had proposed one of the nuttiest ideas I’ve heard in a while: creating a state-run bank.
At the state Senate level, Democrats have been slow to defend seats currently held by their party. In one western Michigan district that is traditionally a 50/50 split, the Republican candidate holds a double digit lead in the polls.
And in the state House, sources say Republicans stand to do very well in nearly 80 districts. There are 110 seats in the Democratically-controlled House.
Conditions are so bad for Democrats that no Obama administration official has attempted to campaign here. But this past Sunday, former president Bill Clinton appeared at a Bernero rally. The Detroit Free Press reported Clinton and the entire statewide Democratic ticket drew some 500 people, unable to half-fill a Detroit high school gymnasium. The paper described the result as “anemic.”
All of this likely spells real trouble for Obama in 2012. A once-solidly Democratic state is about to rebuke the economic policies of Granholm and Obama. If Michigan goes “red,” Obama’s chances of being re-elected will continue to fade.