American political history includes periods so distinctive that they came to be known as Eras. They include The Jacksonian Era (1820s), The Gilded Age (1830s to 1890s) and The Progressive Era (1890s-1920s). There was also the Era of Good Feelings between 1816 and 1822. It was dubbed that because partisan strife was said to be minimal. How minimal? In 1820, James Monroe was reelected without opposition. Today is far removed from such a time and place. Partisanship has been on the rise since the mid 1990s and has reached such heights, you could make the argument that we are living in The Divided Era of American Politics.
Long removed from the electoral landslides of Republican Ronald Reagan, his Reagan Democrats and his 3rd term under Bush 41, we have had a succession of Presidents that have been besieged by partisan wrangling. Democrat Bill Clinton never received the majority vote and lost the Congress in 1994. Republican George W. Bush 43 lost the popular vote, went on to increase his party’s presence in Congress in 3 straight elections, but then lost the Congress and left with an approval rating below 40%. Democrat Barack Obama’s approval ratings dropped at record pace during his first year and one half in office and the US Congress endures record low approval ratings in the low teens.
The nation’s big state Governors have also endured tough times. California’s current Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is suffering from sub 40 approval ratings while his Democrat predecessor Gray Davis was recalled. In New York, the incumbent Democrat Governor David Patterson’s ratings were so low he was chased from his reelection bid. In neighboring New Jersey, the last election cycle saw an affluent incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine lose amidst low ratings.
Even our electoral map is divided. So, if we consider that nearly 20 year bipartisan history, along with the scope of partisanship today and the prospects for division over the next two years, is it fair to say we entered The Divided Era of American Politics? If so, what caused it? Was it the fault of our leaders Presidential and Congressional? Was it simply a matter of bad policies? Does an electorate hooked on ever-increasing government programs now have expectations that simply cannot be met by a lumbering bureaucratic welfare state? Or has the 24/7 Media Era made it impossible for Presidents and Congresses to succeed because of too much scrutiny? After all, the media shielded FDR by not showing pictures of him in his wheelchair and today the list of candidates brought down for private matters grows with every cycle.
Would Lincoln have succeeded under such scrutiny? Could the American Revolution soldier on for 8 years, with so many lost battles, under such watchful eyes? Would Reagan have been Reagan?
We must accept that history so immediate is harder to know and even more difficult to understand than records of long ago. It is safe to say, however, that there is not just one factor driving this Divided Era but instead a combination of factors. Since it is probable that the years ahead offer more challenges than those gone by, our next generation of leaders would do well to understand the factors that have brought to where we are in the hope of achieving greater success in the future. For now however, the prospects of division are unlikely to subside before this Presidency is over and The Divided Era is upon us.