How The West Can Be Won By Republicans

The focus of American politics is often on the East Coast. The interplay between Washington DC and the major media outlets on the East Coast often results in West Coast politics being as much as an afterthought as college sports are to eastern writers. This year, however, is different because the West features some of the highest profile races in the Country – races that can be won by Republicans.

The races that are grabbing that attention – which attention is likely to grow – are: (1) the Nevada race for Senate pitting the Democrat Leader Harry Reid against newcomer and the Tea Party candidate Sharon Angle, (2) the Washington State Senate Race between the Democrat incumbent Patty Murray and a yet to be determined Republican , and in California (3) newcomer Republican Meg Whitman v. Jerry Brown for Governor, and (4) newcomer Republican Carly Fiorina v. Democrat incumbent Barbara Boxer for US Senate.

In each of those races, the Republican has more than just a chance to win. In California, the latest polling shows the Republican Whitman statistically tied with the Democrat Jerry Brown,(B) 44 – (W) 43. Whitman is proving to be an incredibly determined candidate and is more than matching the spending on the Left in support of Brown. How worried are the Democrats about that race? The Democrats Governor’s Association, in a very rare move, spent money to attack Whitman during the Republican primary. Perhaps more telling, the LA Times recently ran an article chronicling Brown’s troubles entitled: “Brown’s frugal campaign may be too little, too late.”

In the race for Senate, Boxer’s slim lead over Fiorina is within the margin of error 44-41 – but within that Field poll is even more trouble for Boxer. Her unfavorable rating jumped from 39% to 52% over the last year. Combined with Boxer’s high name identification, that poll indicates that Boxer will have a hard time convincing the voters who already know her – and don’t like her – to vote for her in this anti-Washington, non-incumbent year. Fiorina, on the other hand, has a big upside potential and is a dynamic candidate who will be better funded then any of Boxer’s prior opponents in a state favorable to women candidates.

In Washington State, incumbent Patty Murray is facing a stiff challenge as well. No less than the Cook Political Report lists her race as a “toss-up” and she has see-sawed with Republican Dino Rossi in the polls over the last six months. All of which brings us to Nevada and candidates with the last name Reid.

The son of Harry Reid, Rory Reid, is trailing by double digits, to Republican Brian Sandoval in their bid to be the Governor of Nevada. So toxic is Harry Reid’s 52% unfavorable rating that his son is, well, not “emphasizing” their last name in ads. On the other side of Harry Reid is the spirited Sharon Angle who leads Reid but as much as 7% in the latest polling.

All together, Republicans have an enormous opportunity to win 3 Senate seats long thought beyond reach and a critical Governorship out West in the 2010 midterms – and they will be aided in that endeavor by something that hurt Western Republican candidates so very much in 1996.

That certain something is the effect that Eastern losses have on Western voters. In 1996, Bob Dole’s Presidential showing (and early concession) discouraged Western Republican voters and led to significantly reduced votes for Republican candidates. This year, dire predictions about the Democrats chances in November are on the rise. So much so that the “National Journal’s Charlie Cook, the Beltway’s leading political handicapper, predicted last month ‘the House is gone,’ meaning a GOP takeover.”

On Election Day, after months and months of hearing bad news, and then actually witnessing bad news in the form losing House race after House race, Western Democrats – who otherwise vote in the late afternoons – may well be so discouraged that they will drive straight home – just as many Republicans did in 1996.

How big an impact will that dynamic be in 2010? Quite possibly large enough for a sweep of those 4 races and more IF.

The IF is whether Republicans will be rady to capitalize on that dynamic. Western Republican Partys simply must put together unprecendted GOTV efforts this Fall. Beyond the normal election day push, if Republicans are willing to push hard between 4 pm and 8 pm Western time to make sure every possible Republican vote is cast, Republicans will have a chance to defeat the likes of Boxer and Brown. Simple said, the opportunity for Republicans to Win the West is there – it is not a question of a way – it will, however, be a question of will.