Friday’s May jobs figure is vastly skewed because of the hundreds of thousands of temporary census employees–approximately 411,000–hired to perform the decennial enumeration of the U.S. population and gather concomitant vital information. In the coming days, economists will be assessing the distorting effect the addition of these temporary public sector workers has on the restoration or creation of employment and the overall strength or weakness of the economic recovery.
A few non-economists like myself, however, will be asking a very different question.
Namely–what can the history of the cost of performing the once-a-decade head count reveal about how government-run health care costs will behave? Will Obamacare be the exception to the runaway cost rule? Let’s use the census as a yardstick.
To keep this analysis at its most simple, let us compare the rate at which the population increased with the rate at which the cost of counting it (the decennial census) increased. That sounds sensical enough.
According to Appendix A-1 of Jason Gauthier’s 2002 study entitled Measuring America: The Decennial Censuses from 1790 to 2000, the cost to perform the census has risen over the decades at a rate staggeringly higher than the rate of the growth of the population itself. What does this mean? Simply put, that bureaucracy is obese. Morbidly obese.
Whatever the opposite of efficiency is, the cost of taking the census epitomizes it.
Consider this chart from Gauthier’s study:
| YEAR | POPULATION | CENSUS COST |
| 1790 | 3,929,214 | $44,377 |
| 1800 | 5,308,483 | $66,109 |
| 1810 | 7,239,881 | $178,445 |
| 1820 | 9,633,822 | $208,526 |
| 1830 | 12,866,020 | $378,545 |
| 1840 | 17,069,458 | $ 833,371 |
| 1850 | 23,191,876 | $1,423,351 |
| 1860 | 31,443,321 | $1,969,377 |
| 1870 | 38,558,371 | $3,421,198 |
| 1880 | 50,155,783 | $5,790,678 |
| 1890 | 62,979,766 | $11,547,127 |
| 1900 | 76,303,387 | $11,854,000 |
| 1910 | 91,972,266 | $15,968,000 |
| 1920 | 105,710,620 | $25,117,000 |
| 1930 | 122,775,046 | $40,156,000 |
| 1940 | 131,669,275 | $67,527,000 |
| 1950 | 151,325,798 | $91,462,000 |
| 1960 | 179,323,175 | $127,934,000 |
| 1970 | 203,302,031 | $247,653,000 |
| 1980 | 226,542,199 | $1,078,488,000 |
| 1990 | 248,718,301 | $2,492,830,000 |
| 2000 | 281,421,906 | $4,500,000,000 |
| 2010 | 308,983,000* | $14,500,000,000* |
*2010 estimates are the GAO’s own best guesses. For more information, visit its site here.
Now let’s add three more columns, (1) the average cost per person counted along with (2) the year-on-year rate of growth of the population and (3) the year-on-year rate of increases in the census costs. That chart looks like this:
| YEAR | POPULATION | COST OF CENSUS | CENSUS COST PER PERSON | RATE OF YEARLY POP. GROWTH | RATE OF YEARLY COST GROWTH |
| 1790 | 3,929,214 | $44,377 | 1.13 cents | N/A | N/A |
| 1800 | 5,308,483 | $66,109 | 1.24 cents | 35.10% | 48.97% |
| 1810 | 7,239,881 | $178,445 | 2.46 cents | 36.38% | 169.93% |
| 1820 | 9,633,822 | $208,526 | 2.16 cents | 33.07% | 16.86% |
| 1830 | 12,866,020 | $378,545 | 2.94 cents | 33.55% | 81.53% |
| 1840 | 17,069,4 | $ 833,371 | 4.88 cents | 32.67% | 120.15% |
| 1850 | 23,1976 | $1,423,351 | 6.14 cents | 35.87% | 70.79% |
| 1860 | 31,443,321 | $1,969,377 | 6.26 cents | 35.58% | 38.36% |
| 1870 | 38,558,371 | $3,421,198 | 8.87 cents | 22.63% | 73.72% |
| 1880 | 50,155,783 | $5,790,678 | 11.54 cents | 30.08% | 69.26% |
| 1890 | 62,979,766 | $11,547,127 | 18.33 cents | 25.57% | 99.41% |
| 1900 | 76,303,387 | $11,854,000 | 15.54 cents | 21.16% | 2.66% |
| 1910 | 91,972,266 | $15,968,000 | 17.07 cents | 20.53% | 34.71% |
| 1920 | 105,710,620 | $25,117,000 | 23.76 cents | 14.94% | 57.30% |
| 1930 | 122,775,046 | $40,156,000 | 32.71 cents | 16.14% | 59.88% |
| 1940 | 131,669,275 | $67,527,000 | 51.29 cents | 7.24% | 68.13% |
| 1950 | 151,325,798 | $91,462,000 | 60.44 cents | 14.93% | 35.45% |
| 1960 | 179,323,175 | $127,934,000 | 71.34 cents | 18.50% | 39.88% |
| 1970 | 203,302,031 | $247,653,000 | $1.22 | 13.37% | 93.58% |
| 1980 | 226,542,199 | $1,078,488,000 | $4.76 | 11.43% | 335.48% |
| 1990 | 248,718,301 | $2,492,830,000 | $10.02 | 9.79% | 131.14% |
| 2000 | 281,421,906 | $4,500,000,000 | $15.99 | 13.15% | 80.52% |
| 2010 | 308,983,000* | $14,500,000,000* | $46.93* | 9.79%* | 222.22%* |
*2010 estimates from GAO (see above).
You don’t need to hold an MBA from the Harvard Business School to recognize fiscal management run amok. Not only is no one minding the store–they’re giving it away.
Look at one short example from the above table: taking the census cost a little more than 60 cents per person in 1950 ($91.4 million). It is projected to cost nearly $47 per person in 2010 ($14.5 billion). That’s a whopping 7822% increase in cost per person. During the same time, the population rose by 100% (i.e., doubled) from 150 million to over 300 million. But the overall cost of counting it (the census) rose by 15,800%. This is fiscal discipline only Greece could be proud of.
Counting heads is a relatively simple procedure. Especially when compared to much more complex endeavors such as curing cancers, treating pain, setting fractured bones, diagnosing illnesses, providing emergency treatment and the like.
If the costs of a relatively simple administrative procedure like taking the decennial census have a history of spiraling wildly out of control, what is the graph of runaway Obamacare costs going to look like? Imagine the price tag of having the government in charge of keeping Americans healthy–compared to just counting their noses.
The CBO was merely a pawn used by the Obama administration to lend a much-needed imprimatur to its incredible claims of lowered health care costs in order to hoodwink legislators into passing and the public into accepting this massive entitlement. But as one economic wag described the validity of the CBO’s projections a month or so ago on Kudlow and Company: “Fantasy in, fantasy out.” FIFO. The public has shown itself less gullible than the lawmakers–it still widely supports repeal by a 63% majority according to a recent Rasmussen poll of 1000 likely voters.
If you think Obamacare looks expensive now, just massage the CBO’s risibly unrealistic projections with a little reality from the census’s actual costs over the decades. The census cost spiral demonstrates that in no time at all Obamacare will grow so obese it’ll have to be pushed around in a wheelchair.
That is, unless enough educated dissenters vote this wrong-headed law’s supporters out of office in November and begin the long hard uphill push to repeal. Then and only then will Obamacare have a chance of winding up where it really belongs–not in a wheelchair, but on a gurney.
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