Turning Voter Anger into a Republican Mandate

Three times in the television era, voter anger has led to midterm losses approaching or exceeding 50 seats for the President’s Party. In 1966, 47 seats were lost, 48 seats were lost in 1974 and 52 seats were lost in 1994. In only one of those cases, however, did the Party that gained seats turn that voter anger into a long term mandate: 1994. The question this year is whether Republicans will follow the successful model of 1994 or make the same mistakes the Republicans made in 1966 and the Democrats made in 1974.

Voter Anger Equals Election Losses. In 1966, despite an economy growing at over 6% per year, Democrats and Lyndon Johnson lost 47 House seats. They managed that feat, in defiance of the “It’s the economy stupid” theory, by angering a significant portion of the voting populace with noneconomic policies on the Vietnam War, Civil Rights and the Great Society. That dynamic deflated Johnson’s approval rating to just 49%. In 1974, voter anger arose over an ethics backlash against the Republicans, i.e. Watergate, and a bad economy. Combined with Ford’s post pardon approval rating of 47%, the Republicans lost 48 seats. In 1994, despite a growing economy and 5 million new jobs dating back into the final year of the Bush Administration, Clinton’s approval rating was 46% and the Democrats lost 52 seats. Clinton gaffes and his decision to push through the largest tax increase in history – despite his promise to enact a middle class tax cut – fueled voter anger that year.

Anger Does Not Equal A Mandate. Obviously, voter anger, even with a good economy, can lead to poor Presidential approval ratings. Those Presidential approval ratings below 50% resulted in an average midterm loss of a staggering 49 seats. Even so, the combined elections of 1966, 1968, 1970 and 1972 did not bring a Republican majority in Congress. Despite big gains in 1974, the Democrats barely won the Presidency in 1976, lost seats in 1978, and lost the Presidency by a wide margin in 1980. In other words, those big election gains were not transformed into enduring mandates.

There is an obvious reason why.

Elections are often reactions. So if a party in power performs poorly, the pendulum often swings back the other direction; the midterm loss effect. Mandates, on the other hand, occur when a political party accentuates the pendulum swing by crafting a clear agenda that successfully addresses existing voter anger. Potential mandates can be squandered when the cause of voter anger is ignored.

For instance, the Republicans under Nixon increased federal spending, raised tax rates to try to pay for it and continued the Vietnam War inclusive of “secret bombing.” That hardly represented a marshaling of the voter anger into a different direction. True, the Republicans could not just walk away from the Vietnam War; but they missed a chance at a potential mandate and never took back the Congress when they embraced tax and spend policies.

By the end of Ford’s presidency, the nation had endured tax and spend policies, 9% unemployment and inflation that topped 12%. In the years following their 48 seat gain in 1974, however, the Democrats failed to capitalize on voter distrust of government (Pentagon papers/Watergate). They failed to craft a significant ethics agenda and proceeded to tax and spend even more under Carter. In other words, another potential mandate went down the drain.

By 1994, Republicans truly capitalized on voter anger over tax and spend policies (1) by voting en masse against Clinton’s tax bill, and then (2) by offering a new direction reform package in 1994 – the Contract with America. That contract was part of a sustained and clear narrative of government reform which led to the Republicans taking over the Congress.

Beginning in 2005, voters anger began building over tax and spend policies. Obama, rather than build on that anger, which began to foment again in 2005 and led to Republicans losses in 2006, blew the deficit wide open with a spending splurge. Now voters are angrier than ever and Obama’s approval rating is 45%. Republicans can choose to simply ride that voter anger into winning many seats in the Fall – or – they can learn the lessons of 1966, 1974 and 1994, by offering a sustained and clear new direction of government reform this Fall – and turn voter anger into a Republican mandate.