The reported Pakistani capture of Taliban founder and overall leader Mullah Omar is potentially a game changing event in the Afghanistan war, with profound implications for the stabilization of Pakistan.
If the report is correct, and if Omar is persuaded to talk (which is not at all assured) the information he has could reduce the Taliban networks in Afghanistan and Pakistan to a level at which – for a time – they were no longer an existential threat to both governments. And, equally important, he could expose the details of the Iranian support of the Taliban, naming people in Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan who give and receive arms, funding and training.
But let’s not celebrate too quickly.
First and foremost, we need to get the Pakistanis to delay giving him into US custody. That is contrary to our normal instincts, but this man – taken alive and brought to any US detention facility other than Guantanamo Bay — would be Mirandized and pushed into the civilian criminal justice system where he, and his ilk, manifestly don’t belong. We would be forfeiting months of probable success in interrogating him.
The other reason to keep Omar in Pakistani custody is the Iran question. The Obama administration still hasn’t formed the so-called “high-value detainee interrogation group” promised as the alternative to the now-banned “enhanced interrogation techniques” which proved so valuable in the Bush era.
If Omar can be persuaded to give up information on Iran, it should be either to CIA or US military intelligence personnel or to the Pakistanis. US civilian interrogators would be more susceptible to Administration pressure to ignore information about Iran which might put them in the position of having to do something serious in response to the information. Obama wants no inconvenient truths interrupting his “open-hand” strategy to Iran.
CIA and military US interrogators – perhaps working with the Pakistanis in a Pakistani jail — can better question Omar on matters such as the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps’ involvement with the Taliban, what other sources of funding and support come from other Islamic countries, and what involvement do Russia and China have? (We know from the Pentagon report on Afghanistan released a week ago that the Taliban receive funding from many Islamic countries).
And then there is the question of Usama bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri. Omar is reported to be close to them both, and if anyone could lead us to them, it is probably Mullah Omar.
Omar is, at the very least, a co-conspirator in the 9-11 attacks. If we have him – or the Pakistanis do – he must not be allowed to escape. He should face trial in a military commission at Gitmo as soon as the intel folks have bled him dry (figuratively speaking, more or less.)
If Omar has been captured, there is a time window in which he must be questioned and the information he gives up acted upon. If the Pakistanis – or we — have Omar then the Taliban and al-Qaeda know we do. And they will change as much of the way they operate, their funds flow, the location of their people and supply trails as they can.
That would disrupt, but not destroy, the Taliban networks. If we can get Omar’s information and turn it into actionable targeting data for everything from B-52s to special operations cadres, we can do more than disrupt: we can, conceivably, put the Taliban on its back for a long time. If we aren’t willing or able to seize the opportunity, Omar will be just another wasted chance to make huge progress in Afghanistan.
But not permanently. Remember, please, that this is as much an ideological war as a kinetic one. And remember that the Taliban are Iran’s surrogate, not the principal enemy. Even if we have Omar and everything works as we’d like it to, the Taliban will be back, again and again, until Iran is forced to stop sponsoring terrorism against us. Don’t hold your breath.