Winners, Losers and Lessons From Tuesday

One would think the repudiation of the President Obama’s direct personal plea would make him the biggest loser in the wake of Tuesday’s stunning victory by Republican Scott Brown in the Massachusetts special Senate election. But one would be wrong.

The biggest loser, of course, is Martha Coakley. It takes a choke-job of epic proportions for a Democrat to lose statewide, no less to fill the legendary Ted Kennedy’s seat. Next on the list would be the Democratic establishment, which failed to find a workable candidate under what’s as close to idea conditions as it comes. (Coakley’s spin machine was certainly happy to cast blame in that direction.)

Though the Republicans are ostensible winners, the meaning of this victory may be lost. The vote, by most accounts, was anti-Coakley and largely in opposition to D.C. Democrats’ over-reaching plans to regulate and legislate our economy into the ground.

But that buck won’t stop at the president’s desk.

With his falling popularity, the President has failed to achieve the top domestic policy and political priorities of his major backers. After not getting the card check law it wanted, Big Labor is now being vilified for exempting only its members from the costly “Cadillac” tax. The environmental lobby hasn’t gotten cap and trade. And no one from the Administration’s camp has actually gotten health care legislation.

So even with a virtual super-majority the President wasn’t able to push through his far Left-wing’s agenda. Now, victory by Brown suddenly gives the White House the best gift they could hope for: the threat of Republican resurgence and the cover he needs to start governing again from the center — where most Americans assumed Obama would spend his time.

All this is not to say that the Democrats won’t continue to push a costly agenda; but it will go underground. Politicians will need to find ways to keep SEIU and the far-Green fringe knocking on doors and cutting checks before November’s midterm elections. As such, the biggest threats will be non-legislative gambits (attempts to regulate carbon dioxide through the EPA, massive new OSHA regulations invading workplaces across the nation, etc).

Tuesday’s results and attendant political shift pose a significant challenge (and opportunity!): Tea Partiers must find ways to make their voices heard to fight the expansion of big government through regulation. Consider some resources like the Heritage Foundation site on regulation or (if you’re hopeful that there’s been a sudden burst of transparency) Regulations.gov and be sure to write comments when the government bureaucracy tries to create new rules.

But back to the good news for a moment more.

President Obama and his chief of staff likely remember the important lesson from former President Bill Clinton’s first two years with a Democratic majority, in which he nearly tanked his presidency with a disastrous effort on health care legislation. He was rewarded with a Republican Congress and received accolades from governing as a moderate, always able to tell his own party members to sit down quietly.

Perhaps Obama wanted nothing more than to have his own Republican-controlled Congress. If so, he’s done everything possible so far to ensure he got what he wanted. He — and we — will have to wait till November to see if he gets his full wish.