Saturday is a big day in the Senate for ObamaCare. Congressional Quarterly reported that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) will unveil his manager’s package of changes to the Senate version of ObamaCare on Saturday morning and immediately file cloture to shut off debate on the package. This package of changes to the bill and special interest projects were crafted by Reid to buy the support of members wavering in his caucus, including Senators Ben Nelson (D-NE), Joe Lieberman (I-CT) and Jim Webb (D-VA).
Nobody knows if any acceptable compromise is possible at this point in the debate. Liberals in the Democrat Caucus are mad because the public option has been scrapped and moderates are concerned that this bill has become so politically unpopular that a vote for any version of ObamaCare is the functional equivalent of political suicide. If the Reid Amendment passes, then the President will be one step closer to victory. If ObamaCare goes down in flames, then Monday may prove to be the President and Senator Harry Reid’s health care Waterloo.
Right now the Senate is taking a brief break from health care to complete work on the Defense Appropriations bill, the last remaining appropriations bill for the year. The bill will be dispensed with after a series of votes starting at 7:30 am on Saturday, then the Senate will immediately pivot back to ObamaCare. After the Reid Amendment is read, Reid will need 60 votes on the amendment scheduled for a vote at 1 am on Monday, December 21st. This will be the do or die moment for ObamaCare. If the Reid Amendment passes, then ObamaCare is scheduled to be voted upon in the Senate on Christmas Eve.
Already there are signs of danger. As Reid crept closer and closer to the 60 votes needed to pass his version of ObamaCare this past week with the announcement of the scrapping of the public option and expansion of Medicare to appease moderates, liberals revolted against these changes to the bill.
Politico is reporting
With the clock ticking down on health care reform, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) has until Saturday to strike a 60-vote compromise if Democrats hope to meet a Christmas Eve deadline – but the obstacles kept piling up Thursday.
The New York Times reports:
Grass-roots groups are balking, liberal commentators are becoming more critical of the president, some unions are threatening to withhold support and Howard Dean, the former Democratic Party chief, is urging the Senate to kill its health bill.
Reid will not release the legislative text, nor a Congressional Budget Cost (CBO) cost analysis until Saturday. Because nobody knows what is actually in that amendment, there may be new obstacles that arise when Senators review the legislation. Maybe there are objectionable earmarks to buy the votes of wavering members. Maybe there are provisions that nobody knows about that will dramatically change the analysis of the bill. Maybe Reid further watered down measures like the public option that will enrage the far left in the Senate like Socialist Senator from Vermont Bernie Sanders. Once Senators get a chance to read the amendment, we will have a better idea as to whether Reid can get his necessary 60 votes to pass the managers package.
But Reid has one other obstacle. The CBO will have to produce a score, for the next 10 years, for the Reid Amendment. If that score is high, then many moderate Democrats in the Senate may have to walk away from the deal, because they are concerned about the long term costs of Obamacare. Some have cited a figure of $2.5 trillion over the first 10 years of implementation of the bill and if the Reid Amendment adds to that already high cost, it is hard to imagine that members will not run away from the deal.
The bottom line is that the deal may collapse on Saturday when Senators read the amendment. More likely the deal will be sealed or killed when the Senate votes on the Reid Amendment on Monday after Senators have the weekend to digest the changes to ObamaCare and the CBO score. If President Obama and Senator Harry Reid’s quest for more federal control over the health care economy crash and burn in the next few days, many will consider this development an early Christmas present to those who despise big government and love freedom.
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