The San Francisco Bay Area may just prove to be the 3 am the wake call the Obama Administration doesn’t want. This November 3, a potential trend setting – special election – is taking place in Congressional District 10. CD 10 is the old Ellen Tauscher (D) seat she vacated when she became #3 in the State Department.

It is a battle featuring a Big Government Liberal, aka John Garamendi, and the Republican David Harmer who is employing an interesting, new strategy. Before I get to Harmer: I know what you are thinking: The SF Bay Area? A Republican pick up? The answer quite possibly could be YES.

Polling shows the race just outside the margin of error and the Generic Congressional ballot is even closer. With one month to go (1) enthusiasm is running high among Harmer supporters and (2) John Garamendi is a classic target for a rebound election.

According to Garamendi, we have to “change the mindset” of Californians on Prop 13 – the landmark property tax reform passed by the CA voters in 1978 to keep higher property taxes from running people out of their homes. Garamendi wants to end Prop 13 as we know it and the two-thirds majority vote needed for the CA Legislature to pass a budget or levy taxes. He also supports higher income taxes “without apology” – most of the time. Recently, however, he was caught double dealing on the issue as highlighted by this Harmer Campaign video. Beyond that, Garamendi wants “European-style” health care for America.

Get the picture? Garamendi would be classic vote for old-line liberal causes – a replacement for Ted Kennedy if you will.

David Harmer, on the other hand, is a conservative who wants to win that seat (1) by exposing Garamendi’s record and (2) by rolling out the innovative Harmer Pledge.

The 3-part Harmer Pledge is a direct challenge to Garamendi.

Harmer proposes to:

1. Grow the economy not Government.

2. Balance the budget by controlling spending – not by raising taxes.

3. Help Small Business grow and become the engine of economic recovery.

In the weeks to come, Harmer will be using Talk Radio, the Internet and good ole’ fashion counter protests to see if Big Government Garamendi will take the pledge.

Still think Harmer can’t win – even with that strategy? Then ask yourself why Bill Clinton had to come declare his support for Garamendi – and the best part? Clinton did it outside the district – perhaps in deference to the fact that carpet-bagger Garamendi lives outside the district.

Keep an eye on this race.