Why post-election violence in Mozambique is a concern for Southern Africa

Weeks of violent protests have marked the outcome of Mozambique disputed Oct. 9 elections, which saw ruling party Frelimo’s candidate Daniel Chapo declared the winner

Why post-election violence in Mozambique is a concern for Southern AfricaMOGOMOTSI MAGOMEAssociated PressThe Associated PressJOHANNESBURG

JOHANNESBURG (AP) — Mozambique has witnessed protests since the country’s disputed outcomes of the Oct. 9 elections which saw ruling party Frelimo’s candidate Daniel Chapo declared the winner.

At least 30 people are reported to have died during the post-election violence which is likely to be high on the agenda of next week’s Southern African Development Community summit.

Venancio Mondlane, the independent candidate who came second in the elections with 20% of the national vote, is disputing the outcome of the elections and has been calling for nationwide protests.

Here’s why the post-election violence is a concern for the region:

STABLE DEMOCRACIES AND CREDIBLE ELECTIONS

Some Southern African countries are known to run free and fair elections, with at least two elections in South Africa and Botswana being held this year.

In Botswana, the ruling party was removed from power after 58 years and a smooth transfer of power took place within days.

The ruling party in South Africa also lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since 1994 and formed a unity government with opposition parties.

Mauritius held elections on Nov. 10 in which the ruling party lost by a landslide. Namibia is expected to go to the polls later this month.

However, Southern Africa is still experiencing challenges with disputed elections, with Mozambique being the latest.

The European Union’s observer team has alleged irregularities in the Oct. 9 elections, including the altering of some results.

Even in previous local elections in 2023, the ruling Frelimo party was accused of vote-rigging, allegations that have consistently denied.

Zimbabwe has also experienced multiple disputed elections, with its 2023 elections criticized by international observers as being fraught of irregularities and falling short of the country’s constitution.

REGIONAL TRADE AND ECONOMY

Mozambique is a crucial part of regional trade in Southern Africa, sharing borders with South Africa, Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe and Eswatini.

Instability in the country tends to spill over to its neighbours, many of who are already dealing with challenges related to illegal migration.

South Africa closed its side of the Lebombo border that it shares with Mozambique in the wake of the recent protests. South Africa uses the Maputo harbour in Mozambique for some of its exports and the closure of the border resulted in trucks transporting minerals to the harbour being stranded.

South Africa’s freight and rail association estimated that the closure of the border cost the South African economy at least R10 million ($555,177) each day that the border is closed.

The Minerals Council of South Africa estimates that 53% of the chrome ore and concentrate exported by South Africa in 2023 was exported through Maputo.

Mozambique has an abundance of mineral resources and its 2010 discovery of natural gas is expected to reignite its economy as it looks to be more involved with its neighbours in the energy sector.

POLITICAL STABILITY

Mozambique is still in the shadow of a bloody 15-year civil war the leftist Frelimo fought against rebel group Renamo after independence.

The country only held its first elections in 1994 and this was the first vote where there were no armed groups connected to political parties after a process to disarm militias. It has been fighting an Islamic State-affiliated group that has launched attacks on communities in the northern province of Cabo Delgado since 2017.

Around 600,000 of the 1.3 million people who fled have since returned home, many to shattered communities where houses, markets, churches, schools and health facilities have been destroyed, the United Nations said earlier this year.

Its neighbouring countries are home to large Mozambican populations who travel there for work and economic opportunities and any further instability is likely to exacerbate further migration.