Nov. 13 (UPI) — For the past eight days, most reporting on the 2024 U.S. presidential election explored why Donald Trump won and Kamala Harris lost. Now, following the initial announcements of Trump’s cabinet picks, speculation abounds over where his second administration is headed. Of course, more definitive appraisals of the 47th president’s intentions cannot be made until all major cabinet positions are appointed — including Attorney General, Secretary of Defense, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Energy, and Director of National Intelligence — and the Trump transition team begins releasing policy statements.
Trump’s website states that “Political appointments will be based on competence and loyalty.” One can doubt the competence of some of Trump’s selections — loyalty is the more significant criterion for his choices so far. What is concerning is the seeming absence of strategy and clarity about who will do the real thinking for the administration. For the moment, the answer is Trump. And despite having served four years as president, Trump is driven more by instinct than strategic rationality.
Moreover, instead of having a cabinet of rivals to provide the best guidance, Trump prefers a cabinet of loyalists. This means groupthink, aka Trumpthink, will dominate decision making. And that could be dangerous, as no one is infallible and dissent is often vital.
Trump argued immigration was the most important factor leading to his election. He has also promised to impose tariffs, cut taxes, drill to make America energy independent, end the war in Ukraine, give Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu free reign in Gaza, and possibly reduce the U.S. role in NATO. Where is the overall strategy? Will this administration’s modus operandi simply be transactional, conforming to Trump’s business experience?
Thus, it makes sense Trump is prioritizing immigration, announcing Tom Homan as his border czar, Stephen Miller as deputy chief of staff for policy, aka his Svengali on immigration, and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem as U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security. These appointments are obvious signs of Trump’s priority and the likelihood of the president-elect beginning major deportations of undocumented immigrants after he takes office.
In terms of competence and loyalty, we have established the scale is heavily tipped toward the latter. This raises a number of concerns about the intent to undertake massive deportations. At least three issues could become major obstacles to this objective — the first being, how do you identify, arrest, hold and ultimately deport many tens of thousands? The logistics are not easy.
Second, what will the costs be, who will pay for it, and what will it do to the national debt? Third, no doubt there will be substantial legal pushback against these policies, as well as reluctance of many states to receive these deportees. None of these issues are trivial. And so far, no specific plans have provided answers, suggesting this policy could prove to be nightmarish, no matter how much Americans support the policies.
As of this writing, Trump appears to have chosen Florida Sen. Marco Rubio as his Secretary of State, Florida Rep. Mike Waltz as National Security Advisor, New York Rep. Elise Stefanik as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, and Fox News contributor Pete Hegseth as Defense Secretary. At first observation, all of these appointees are China hawks. It seems very possible that while immigration will be a top domestic priority, China will dominate foreign policy. But thus far, there is no overarching strategy to drive policy either at home or abroad.
Rubio has no real qualifications to serve as Secretary of State. Foreign policy is not his strong suit and he has no experience in running a large organization. In addition, his responsibilities have not been defined. Will he have some authority? Or will Rubio simply be Trump’s mouthpiece abroad?
No matter Walz’s qualifications, appointing former military officers as National Security Advisor has rarely worked well. Lt. Col. Robert “Bud” McFarlane presided over Iran-Contra, which almost sank the Reagan administration. Lt. Gen. Mike Flynn, who served in Trump’s first administration, ended up a convicted felon. And except for then-Lt. Gen. Colin Powell, the same reasoning against appointing former officers to the NSA applies to Hegseth and Secretary of Defense.
Stefanik is not known as a diplomat. Her appointment to the UN is a surprise. But she is a Trump loyalist.
Many will argue the new Trump team, most of whom have not been named, should be given a honeymoon period. But if the remainder of appointees are chosen for loyalty and not competence, the United States is in trouble. Unfortunately, Donald Trump knows exactly what he is doing. And if this proves correct, come 2026, the Democrats will be back.
Harlan Ullman is UPI’s Arnaud de Borchgrave Distinguished Columnist, a senior advisor at Washington’s Atlantic Council, the prime author of “shock and awe” and author of “The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD: How Massive Attacks of Disruption Became the Looming Existential Danger to a Divided Nation and the World at Large.” Follow him @harlankullman. The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.