Sept. 4 (UPI) — U.S. President Joe Biden and his administration are finalizing a final offer for a ceasefire and return of the hostages held in Gaza by Hamas. This comes days after the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) recovered the bodies of six hostages presumably shot dead just before they could be rescued. One was an American.
In Israel, massive protests and strikes broke out over the failure of the Netanyahu administration to retrieve the remaining hundred or so hostages being held by Hamas. It has been almost 11 months since they were taken captive. Tragically, their fate and well-being remain unknown.
It remains to be seen whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu will take reprisals against Hamas for the murders. In the United States, students are returning to colleges and universities. It is uncertain if further Israeli violence against Palestinians in the war on Hamas in Gaza will lead to more riots and protests on campus. But with the November elections approaching and the presidential campaigns becoming more vicious, the unrest of the spring could too easily reoccur. This could also affect the elections.
There are several overriding contradictions and delusions that make any responsible solution to the war in Gaza virtually impossible to imagine. First is the delusion that Hamas wants a lasting ceasefire. The proposed 60-day deal will give Hamas breathing room for resupply and consolidation. The IDF says it is prepared for that.
Hamas has no interest in a viable end to the war. The war is exhausting an already overstressed IDF. Lebanon, Syria, Hezbollah and Iran remain high on the threat list for Israel. So a temporary ceasefire merely sets a date for a restart of hostilities. The more Palestinians killed, the more Israel will be seen by much of the outside world as a pariah. And the more casualties on all sides, the more pressure will be placed on the Netanyahu government to change policy and indeed, for a new one to form.
Moreover, hostages are vital pieces in this cynical game for Hamas. A few can be spent on occasion to achieve whatever ends Hamas wishes. But not so many will be used that the pile eventually is reduced to zero.
Likewise, Netanyahu has no incentive for peace other than on his terms. To believe otherwise is a delusion. Hamas is unlikely to concede to an agreement in which all hostages are immediately released. It is to Hamas’ benefit to keep some, whether dead or alive. And some Israelis believe if the Netanyahu government falls, Bibi will be subject to legal action and even jail if convicted.
The Biden administration is also trapped in a delusion. It believes it can both support Israel and contain the carnage it is imposing on Palestinians, many of whom detest Hamas. The polio outbreak adds to this humanitarian disaster. Republicans will continue to attack the Biden administration for failing to provide all the weapons and support Israel needs to “win” the war against Hamas.
It is a delusion to think Hamas will be destroyed and this “war” can be won. Hamas is part of Gaza’s DNA and a political force that governed Gaza for decades. Interestingly, Netanyahu was supportive of Hamas as a counterweight to the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and other radical groups. To destroy Hamas means destroying much of Gaza and killing Palestinians or creating a new political organization to replace Hamas. This organization would have the responsibility of providing governance.
This idea is another delusion: that a new organization can be created whole and inserted into Gaza. Given all these delusions, is there any way out of this tragic nightmare? Only one comes to mind. Will the Israeli people finally demand a new government that is prepared to accept a two state solution and find an end to the war? Part of any solution must include some form of détente or rapprochement with the Saudis and other Gulf states who might be persuaded to contribute to rebuilding Gaza and finding a suitable government that can actually govern.
The final delusion is both Republicans and Democrats believe each has solutions to this crisis that the other does not. Former President Donald Trump asserts he can end the Ukraine War in one day if reelected. But does anyone have a realistic idea of how to end the war in Gaza?
The answer suffers no delusions. It is no. However, as all wars end, so will the war in Gaza. But at what costs and what consequences? Those answers are truly frightening and still impossible to find.
Harlan Ullman is UPI’s Arnaud de Borchgrave Distinguished Columnist, a senior advisor at Washington’s Atlantic Council, the prime author of “shock and awe” and author of “The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD: How Massive Attacks of Disruption Became the Looming Existential Danger to a Divided Nation and the World at Large.” Follow him @harlankullman. The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.
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