Southeast Asian leaders met for talks with a Myanmar junta representative at a regional summit Wednesday as they try to kickstart faltering diplomatic efforts to broker an end to the country’s civil war.
The disputed South China Sea will also be on the agenda at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) gathering, after months of violent clashes between Chinese vessels and Philippine and Vietnamese fishermen.
ASEAN has tried to no avail for three years to find a negotiated solution to the Myanmar crisis, which has left thousands dead and forced millions to flee their homes.
The bloc barred junta leaders from its summits in the wake of their February 2021 coup and the generals refused invitations to send a “non-political” representative instead.
But the junta has backed down and sent a senior foreign ministry official to the three-day meet in Laos — its first representation at a top-level gathering in three and a half years.
The U-turn comes two weeks after the military issued an unprecedented invitation to its enemies for talks aimed at ending the conflict, following a series of battlefield defeats.
Weeks after it ousted Aung San Suu Kyi’s government, the junta agreed to a “five point consensus” plan with ASEAN to restore peace, but ignored it and pushed ahead with a bloody crackdown on opposition to its rule.
– Scepticism about talks –
Officials hope that the leaders’ first face-to-face talks in three and a half years with a junta representative — foreign ministry permanent secretary Aung Kyaw Moe — could open the way to a breakthrough.
But Daniel Kritenbrink, the top US diplomat for East Asia, voiced doubts.
He said that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who will attend talks with ASEAN leaders on Thursday, would press for the junta to take steps such as reducing violence, releasing political prisoners, and engaging with the opposition.
“Unfortunately, we have seen virtually zero progress on any of those priorities,” Kritenbrink said.
Mustafa Izzuddin, international affairs analyst at Solaris Strategies Singapore, said the Myanmar crisis was a test of ASEAN’s relevance.
“The longer the Myanmar crisis remains unresolved, the greater the risk of ASEAN outliving its usefulness in resolving conflicts within the Southeast Asian region,” he told AFP.
With formal diplomacy making no progress, Thailand will host informal talks on the crisis in December involving ASEAN members and possibly neighbouring countries such as China and India.
But Padoh Saw Taw Nee, a spokesman for the Karen National Union (KNU), an armed group which has been battling the military for decades along the border with Thailand, was sceptical of the bloc’s ability to make a difference.
“ASEAN really needs to coordinate with the two big powerful countries, China and the US. Without the two big powers’ green light ASEAN couldn’t get anywhere,” he told AFP.
South China Sea
The Myanmar crisis has dominated every high-level meeting since the coup but the bloc has been divided, with Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines leading calls for tougher action against the generals.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos is also expected to push discussions on the South China Sea, where Chinese coast guard and other vessels clashed with Philippine government boats and Vietnamese fishermen in recent months.
Beijing claims almost all of the South China Sea, a waterway of immense strategic importance through which trillions of dollars in trade transits every year.
Four ASEAN members — the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia and Brunei — have competing claims to various small islands and reefs.
Chinese Premier Li Qiang arrives on Wednesday, a day before holding talks with the bloc’s leaders and joining an “ASEAN Plus Three” summit with new Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea.
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