Pacific island leaders gather for a key summit in the Kingdom of Tonga on Monday, aiming to navigate rapidly rising seas, damaging great power rivalries and violent unrest in New Caledonia.
This year’s Pacific Islands Forum takes place in Nuku’alofa, a breezy coastal capital still finding its feet after a calamitous volcanic eruption and tsunami in 2022.
Since they last met, the forum’s 18 scattered members have been buffeted by economic headwinds and escalating competition between the United States and China.
But is the encroaching peril of climate change that is expected to sit highest on the agenda.
United Nations chief Antonio Guterres will make a rare appearance at the forum, throwing his weight behind Pacific leaders mounting a renewed climate call to arms.
Once seen as the embodiment of palm-fringed paradise, the South Pacific now occupies one of the most climate-threatened pockets of the planet.
Low-lying nations such as Tuvalu could be almost entirely swallowed by rising oceans within the next 30 years.
“Climate change, as ever, remains the top-line priority for leaders,” said Mihai Sora, director of Pacific research at Australia’s Lowy Institute.
“I think the presence of the UN secretary-general is intended to attract that international interest, to put pressure on international partners.”
It is potentially awkward terrain for forum member Australia, a coal-shovelling mining heavyweight belatedly trying to burnish its green credentials.
Australia wants to co-host the COP31 climate conference alongside its Pacific neighbours in 2026.
But first, it must convince the bloc it is serious about slashing emissions.
Pacific ‘polycrisis’
It will be the first meeting under new forum boss Baron Waqa, who has warned China and the United States to take their “fight” out of “our backyard”.
Beijing has been determinedly courting Pacific nations, using its largesse to build government offices, sporting venues, hospitals, highways and more.
Fearful that China could spin this into a permanent military presence, the United States and Australia have responded by dishing out aid, inking bilateral agreements and re-opening long-dormant embassies.
“China has significantly increased its engagement efforts in the Pacific in recent years, particularly aimed at the security sector,” said Kathryn Paik, a former Pacific expert on US President Joe Biden’s National Security Council.
“As Chinese interest in the region amplifies, however, the US, Australia and other like-minded partners are ever-more focused on ensuring that China does not obtain a military foothold.”
Fijian Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka has described the cocktail of geopolitical tensions and pressing climate threats as a “polycrisis” in the making.
French diss
The unresolved crisis in French territory New Caledonia, a full forum member, also looms large this year.
The Pacific Islands Forum has been trying to send a team of observers to take the pulse in New Caledonia’s riot-crippled capital Noumea.
But the fact-finding mission fell apart on the eve of the summit as squabbling officials failed to agree on terms.
Much of New Caledonia’s ethnically Melanesian Kanak population fears that voting reforms proposed by Paris could forever crush their dreams of independence.
It is a cause that resonates widely in the Pacific bloc, which is stacked with former colonies now fiercely proud of their hard-won sovereignty.
“There’s a lot of concern about the way France is behaving in New Caledonia,” said Tess Newton Cain from the Griffith Asia Institute.
“The French rhetoric is really causing some concern among the forum’s leadership.”
Dog days are over
A parade of premiers, ambassadors and business moguls have been drawn to Nuku’alofa, meaning “abode of love”, the seat of the Tongan king.
Just finding enough beds for delegates has proved an immense logistical challenge.
Many of Nuku’alofa’s seaside hotels were levelled by a tsunami in 2022, triggered by the immense Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcanic eruption.
To plug the gap, Tongan Prime Minister Siaosi Sovaleni has urged the city’s 20,000 residents to throw open their doors and dust off their spare beds.
The city’s roaming posses of not-always-friendly stray dogs have posed another headache.
A team of veterinarians has been sent from nearby Fiji to round up and neuter homeless hounds scratching around the conference venue and main hotels.
Forum preparations have not escaped the gaze of jostling foreign powers either.
Teams of labourers have worked around the clock to finish the summit venue, a $25 million gift from Beijing.
China has also offered 20 motorcycles and “motorcade training” to help Tonga’s police corral officials.
Not to be outdone, Australia has offered Tonga 25 police vehicles, two mini-buses and its own squad of security advisers.
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