Nigerians voted on Saturday for a successor to President Muhammadu Buhari in a tight race with three frontrunners competing for the first time in the country’s modern history.
Nearly 90 million people are eligible to vote, with many Nigerians saying they hoped the new leader of Africa’s most populous democracy would tackle a security crisis, the sluggish economy and widening poverty.
For the first time since the end of military rule in 1999, a third serious candidate has emerged to challenge the dominance of Buhari’s ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
“Nigeria is in a big mess. We need the right leaders,” said Pastor John Fashugba, 76, voting in Lagos. “This election will be a great opportunity for us.”
Polling stations were meant to open at 0730 GMT, but election officials or materials arrived late in numerous centres visited by AFP in Lagos, southern Port Harcourt, and the northwest.
Buhari, a former army commander, steps down after two terms in office, with many critics saying he failed in his promises to make Nigeria a safer and less corrupt country.
Wearing a blue robe, APC’s Bola Tinubu, 70, a former Lagos governor and political kingmaker, voted in his stronghold in the city accompanied by tight security.
Known as the “Godfather of Lagos” for his influence, he says “It’s my turn” for the presidency and can count on APC’s structure and his own political network.
He faces a familiar rival — PDP candidate and former vice president Atiku Abubakar, 76, who is on his sixth bid for the top job and touts his business experience to fix the economy.
“This is more credible than the previous elections,” Abubakar said, voting in his hometown in Yola, northeast Adamawa State.
But both are old guard figures who have fought off corruption accusations in the past.
The emergence of a surprise third candidate appealing to young voters, Labour Party’s Peter Obi, 61, has thrown the race open with his campaign for change.
“I want Nigeria to move forward. We’ve been moving backward for years,” said Chiobueze Otueh, voting in southeast Anambra State.
“We need someone different than these old politicians. We’ve seen their faces for so long.”
Cash shortages
The success of Saturday’s election will be closely watched after West Africa’s democratic credentials took a knock from coups in Burkina Faso and Mali.
Megacity Lagos may have put Nigeria on the global entertainment map today for its Nollywood film industry and global Afrobeats stars like Burna Boy, but the new leader of Africa’s largest economy inherits a complex set of security and financial risks.
Cash and fuel shortages in the run-up to the election have also left many Nigerians angry and struggling more than usual in a country already hit by more than 20 percent inflation.
Presidential elections have in the past often been marked by violence, ethnic tensions, vote-buying and clashes between supporters of rival parties.
Streets in Lagos and other cities were calm on Saturday as traffic was restricted. Groups of boys took advantage to hold impromptu football matches in the empty roads.
Voters will also cast their ballot for Nigeria’s two houses of parliament, the National Assembly and Senate. Polls close at 1330 GMT.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has given no timeline for results, but votes are expected to be tallied within a few days. Under a 2022 law, the official results have to be confirmed within 14 days.
Regional ties
To win the presidency, a candidate must get the most votes, but also win 25 percent in two-thirds of Nigeria’s 36 states.
If no candidate wins, a runoff will take place within 21 days between the two frontrunners — an unprecedented outcome that some analysts say is a possibility this time around.
“It’s difficult for us to make an easy prediction as to what is going to be the likely outcome,” said Kano State College public affairs lecturer Kabiru Sufi.
The rules reflect a country almost equally split between the mostly Muslim north and predominantly Christian south, and with three main ethnic groups across the regions: Yoruba in the southwest, Hausa/Fulani in the north and Igbo in the southeast.
Voting also often falls along ethnic and religious lines.
This time, Tinubu is a southern Yoruba Muslim, Atiku is an ethnic Fulani Muslim from the northeast, and Peter Obi is a Christian Igbo from the southeast.
Today, most experts see INEC as being more prepared than in 2019. It has introduced biometric voter IDs to help prevent fraud, and results will be transmitted electronically.
Around 400,000 police and troops have been deployed around the country to protect the vote.
But Nigeria’s security challenges are vast.
Jihadists operate mostly in the northeast, bandit militias carry out mass kidnappings in rural communities in the northwest, and separatist gunmen are accused of targeting INEC offices and police in the southeast.
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