After Donald Trump’s re-election, Iran has projected indifference, officially stating it expects no fundamental shift in US policy, especially on sanctions or the Middle East’s wars.
However, Trump is set to return to the White House in January — after defeating US Vice President Kamala Harris in Tuesday’s election — at a delicate time for Tehran whose allies in the region have suffered severe blows in conflicts with Israel.
Trump’s victory came with the Middle East in turmoil after the outbreak of the Gaza war in October 2023, triggered by the unprecedented attack by Iran-backed Palestinian militant group Hamas on Israel.
That war has now spread to Lebanon, where Israel is battling Hezbollah, another ally of Iran which itself has now twice launched attacks on Israel, in April and October, using drones and missiles.
“Iran traditionally takes a ‘wait and see’ approach following the election of a new American president,” said John Ghazvinian, who authored a book on US-Iran history.
He says the method of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has final say in all state matters, is to observe “what concrete actions the new administration takes (or doesn’t take) as an indication of its approach to Iran.”
During his first term from 2017, Trump pursued a “maximum pressure” strategy of punishing sanctions on Iran, driving tensions between the long-time adversaries to new heights.
In December 2017 he recognised Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and the following year moved the American embassy there. Trump also recognised Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, which Israel captured from Syria in 1967 and later annexed.
“Trump has already crossed the red line that existed in the relations between Iran and the United States, as well as in the region itself,” said foreign policy analyst Rahman Ghahremanpour.
Given the current tensions around the region and his history of foreign policy, the risk he poses “is greater for Iran’s interest” compared to Democrats, he added.
‘Wrong policies’
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Thursday said, “It makes no difference to us who won the US election.”
Quoted by the official IRNA news agency, Pezeshkian added that Iran has prioritised “developing relations with Islamic and neighbouring countries.”
Iran also called Trump’s victory an opportunity for the US to reassess past “wrong policies”.
Foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei, also quoted by IRNA, said his country has “very bitter experiences with the policies and approaches of different US governments in the past.”
In 2018, Trump unilaterally withdrew the United States from the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers, and reimposed harsh sanctions on the Islamic republic.
Under his presidency in 2020, the United States killed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps General Qasem Soleimani in an air strike on Baghdad airport.
On Tuesday, Trump told reporters he was “not looking to do damage to Iran.”
“My terms are very easy. They can’t have a nuclear weapon. I’d like them to be a very successful country,” he said after he cast his ballot.
Iran has always denied any ambition to develop a nuclear weapons capability, insisting its activities are entirely peaceful.
But it gradually suspended its compliance with caps on nuclear activities after the US pullout from the nuclear deal in 2018.
Pezeshkian, who took office in Iran in July, favoured reviving that agreement and called for ending his country’s isolation.
Last month, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said indirect nuclear talks with the United States, via Oman, had stopped because of regional tensions.
Ghazvinian said that “ending Iran’s isolation will simply not be an agenda” for Trump.
“A Trump administration is likely to pursue provocative, escalatory moves aimed at crushing or collapsing the Islamic Republic,” he said.
‘Take advantage’
Political expert Foad Izadi said ending the war in Gaza and Lebanon will likely continue to “not be a priority” for the United States.
“I don’t think they’re interested in a ceasefire anytime soon,” he said.
Iran has been pushing for a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon and Pezeshkian on Sunday said a potential deal “could affect the intensity” of Tehran’s response to Israel’s strikes on its territory.
On October 26, Israel conducted air strikes on military sites in Iran in response to Tehran’s October 1 attack on Israel, itself retaliation for the killing of Iran-backed militant leaders and a Revolutionary Guards general.
Tehran has vowed to respond despite Israel’s warning against it.
“The general policies of the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are fixed,” Iran’s government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani said before Trump’s victory.
On Thursday, Iranian newspapers featured varied headlines, with the ultraconservative daily Kayhan branding the US as “the Great Satan, regardless of who the president is.”
The reformist Ham Mihan criticised in an editorial those saying the US election makes no difference.
Politicians the world over will have “to improve their understanding of his policies” and “take advantage of this situation for the benefit of their countries’ national interests,” read the editorial.
Iran “should not be an exception this,” it added.