Ballot counting after tense but calm general elections in Mozambique got off to a slow start Thursday, with an opposition leader already claiming outright victory over the Frelimo party in power since independence from Portugal 49 years ago.
More than 17 million people were called to vote on Wednesday for a new president and parliamentarians in the southern African country, which is one of the poorest in the world despite its vast gas deposits.
Even though results are only expected in two weeks, one of the leading contenders in the race to replace outgoing President Filipe Nyusi already claimed to have won.
“This morning, we have to declare our victory at national level,” the charismatic Venancio Mondlane, 50, said on Facebook.
“We have to be on the streets, we have to declare our victory,” said Mondlane, who has a strong following among young voters. He did not provide evidence of electoral malpractice, however, and no demonstrations were reported by late afternoon.
With less than five percent of votes counted, an observatory that claims to be independent but was set up by Frelimo supporters said that the party in power for 49 years was again in the lead.
Many voters said they wanted change in the country, which is still haunted by a 1976-1992 civil war between Frelimo and Renamo, now the main opposition party.
But analysts said Frelimo was likely to maintain power and put its relatively unknown and inexperienced candidate Daniel Chapo, 47, in the presidential seat.
There were widespread claims of fraud in favour of Frelimo after the 2019 presidential elections and 2023 municipal vote, which resulted in clashes with several people killed.
Early and unverified tallies on social networks also claimed to show success for Frelimo and Mondlane.
“But what matters are not the trends from the poll but what the electoral commission will say,” said researcher Borges Nhamirre from the Institute for Security Studies based in South Africa.
Mondlane, who quit Renamo in June and has the backing of the small Podemos party, would need to prove voting fraud if he wanted supporters to join his call for protests, he said.
The candidate could however overtake Renamo as the main opposition, even if Frelimo is unlikely to allow a second round of voting, Nhamirre added.
Calm but tense
While no major incidents were reported on voting day, election observers noted a number of irregularities including voters seen with two ballot papers and opposition observers barred from entering some polling stations.
“It’s now that the fraud is going to start, with the progressive posting of results,” said one analyst on condition of anonymity.
“If Venancio shows a solid lead, the situation will become tense very quickly,” he said, speaking of “a lot of silence and nervousness from the government side”.
In 2019, the Marxist-styled Frelimo took 73 percent of the votes.
Experts have said the electoral commission could announce a slightly more modest result this time to avoid violence but keep Frelimo in power, which it has held since independence from Portugal in 1975.
Nyusi, who has reached the end of a two-term limit, called Wednesday for all parties to remain calm and avoid claiming to know the results ahead of time.
A major challenge for any future government is the economy of the Indian Ocean nation, which is weighed down by poverty and regularly battered by cyclones and drought.
It had hoped for an economic boost after gas deposits were discovered in the north in 2010 but jihadist violence in the area has stalled the development of extraction projects.