A U.S. intelligence report declassified on Monday said the Russians are buying huge qualities of artillery shells and rockets from North Korea, a sign that heavily-sanctioned Russia is having difficulty obtaining or producing the munitions it needs to continue the invasion of Ukraine.
Russia is already known to be purchasing combat drones from Iran, and reportedly having serious technical problems with the first shipment received in late August.
The declassified intelligence report cited by the New York Times (NYT) on Monday did not specify exactly what type or quantity of shells and rockets Russia is buying from North Korea, but the total volume of rounds purchased was described as being in the “millions.”
“A U.S. official said that, beyond short-range rockets and artillery shells, Russia was expected to try to purchase additional North Korean equipment going forward,” the NYT added.
American officials who discussed the report with the NYT said military procurement is one of the few areas where international sanctions against Russia have been highly effective, including sanctions that deprived Russia of the electronic components needed for advanced weapons.
The Russians evidently hoped China would help them bypass these sanctions, but the Chinese have proven reluctant to violate export controls on military hardware, so Moscow had to go shopping in the dodgy second-hand stores of Iran and North Korea. Both of those regimes are already under heavy sanctions, and both are adept at violating them.
“The only reason the Kremlin should have to buy artillery shells or rockets from North Korea or anyone is because Putin has been unwilling or unable to mobilize the Russian economy for war at even the most basic level,” military analyst Frederick W. Kagan of the American Enterprise Institute said.
Other experts said Russia could be taking a big risk by violating U.N. Security Council resolutions to buy military hardware from North Korea, although it is possible that low-tech munitions like artillery shells and short-range rockets might not violate export controls.
It also struck Kagan and other analysts as significant that Russia appears incapable of manufacturing such ordnance on its own, at least not in sufficient quantities to keep the Ukrainian invasion force supplied.
Western intelligence has seen anecdotal evidence that Russian artillery units are having supply problems, and some of the shells they fired appear to have been “degraded because of storage problems or poor maintenance of its ammunition stocks.” The relative quality of North Korean shells and rockets remains to be seen.
Other media outlets, including the UK Guardian, reported quotes on Tuesday from U.S. officials who said the latest intelligence confirms “the Russian military continues to suffer from severe supply shortages in Ukraine, due in part to export controls and sanctions.”
Politico on Tuesday also quoted an unnamed U.S. official who confirmed the NYT report and repeated the talking point that buying arms from North Korea demonstrates “the Russian military continues to suffer from severe supply shortages in Ukraine, due in part to export controls and sanctions.”