China’s propaganda offensive against India has intensified as tensions along the border mount. On Wednesday, China’s state-run Global Times wrote an op-ed asserting that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is in deep political trouble due to economic contraction, the coronavirus pandemic, and of course his unwise decision to pick a fight with mighty China.
Modi’s government currently enjoys a 77 percent approval rating from Indian citizens.
The Global Times claimed Modi’s “hope to win his third term in 2024 is getting dimmer” because “many Indian businesses and jobs are being wiped out permanently, and at the same time, the coronavirus pandemic is raging anew in the most populous country in South Asia, dealing a blow to any hope of an instant recovery.”
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) editorialists dismissed flickers of Indian economy recovery in July and August as “uncertain” because coronavirus infections are said to be increasing, which will supposedly cripple domestic production and exports.
The Indians had certainly better not be hoping for rescue from China, not after rising tensions on the border and India’s #BoycottChina campaign, whose endurance has surprised and frustrated the arrogant CCP:
To make things worse, New Delhi has lately unwisely provoked a new border brawl with China, conniving Indian troops to trespass the LAC (line of actual control) and enter China’s side.
The ill-intended maneuver will exacerbate the already frayed bilateral relations, and effectively drive away Chinese investments from India. Alibaba Group has already halted all new investments, vowing to slash jobs and scale down its operations in India, shortly. It is believed that more Chinese companies will follow and cut down their Indian businesses to reduce their exposure to risks in India.
Following the bloody Galwan Valley border clash on June 15, New Delhi announced to ban 59 Chinese app services in India. The move has fundamentally shaken the previously brisk economic cooperation between the two large countries.
The worsening relations with China, which was somehow engineered by New Delhi to deflect its failure to contain the coronavirus spread, is expected to give the already faltering Indian economy another battering, as China’s huge market will gradually close to Indian goods and services due to the rising border tensions.
The Indian military claims China is the party that violated the LAC and provoked the latest, and thankfully less lethal, border brawl.
The Global Times confidently predicted Indian voters would be angry that they went from seven-percent annual growth to a contraction under Modi. That prediction assumes Indian voters will overlook the impact of the coronavirus and forget where it came from, which seems unlikely.
The Economic Times of India reported in mid-August that contrary to China’s predictions of political doom, Modi’s approval ratings remain surprisingly high, with 77 percent overall approval and “excellent” ratings for how the administration has handled the coronavirus and China. Even the controversies over special consideration for non-Muslim refugees and Modi’s handling of the volatile Kashmir province seem to have dissipated.
“Many experts were left scratching their heads about what exactly is going on. At a time when an already weak economy is in a tailspin due to Covid-19, there isn’t even a ripple of dissatisfaction, at least according to this survey. So what happened to the theory that people ultimately want jobs and growth?” the Economic Times wrote, anticipating precisely the factors China would use a few weeks later to declare Modi’s goose was cooked.
The Indian paper dismissed the explanation that Modi has developed an unshakeable personality cult to suggest Indians have become less “economically aspirational,” which might be rephrased as more pragmatic and more interested in goals beyond raw economic growth, now that the economy is good enough to sustain a decent lifestyle:
The Indian social structure and culture also puts relatively low pressure for people to keep rising higher and higher. Yes, people want a job, but a ‘choti-moti naukri’ is okay. Buy a car? Well, it would be nice, but autos are also okay, right?
Indians have also culturally shunned materialism. Staying content, living with less is appreciated. The Chinese and Americans, for example, have far more hunger to rise up in life and make more money. I am not judging which lifestyle is better, but to grow, you need a population which has a fire in its belly. We, frankly, don’t. We are quite happy — and who is to judge?
Indians may want jobs, but it is okay if your bhaiyya has a job and you don’t – because bhaiya will support us. Indians don’t ask kids to leave home at 18, in fact, staying with your parents at 28 or even 48 is okay, maybe even encouraged. Where is the need for more then?
Choti-moti nakuri means “small job.” Bhaiyya means “brother.” What the Economic Times is suggesting is that Indian voters may feel the economy has grown strong enough to make priorities other than economic growth important, and contrary to the CCP’s wishcasting, they might think standing up to Chinese bullying is worth losing a little trade and investment.