Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned on Tuesday that the Turkish military would invade and “besiege” the heart of Afrin city Syria “in the coming days,” threatening to turn “Operation Olive Branch” into a devastating urban conflict.
Erdogan announced the invasion of Afrin province, on the southern border with Turkey, in January, with the goal of killing and eradicating the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG/YPJ). The YPG is a U.S. allies with one of the best track records fighting the Islamic State (ISIS) in the Middle East and played a key role in defeating ISIS in Raqqa, the group’s self-proclaimed capital.
The U.S. government has not intervened in Afrin, merely affirming that Erdogan has “legitimate security interests” in invading a neighboring country.
In remarks Tuesday, Erdogan vowed to invade Afrin city center.
“Afrin city center will be besieged in the coming days so that the external aid coming to the city and the region gets cut,” he asserted, according to Turkish state news outlet Anadolu Agency. The conquest of the city, he added, was necessary for “lasting” security in the region.
“We had been waiting for the threat coming from terror organizations in Syria to be prevented through the country’s own dynamics and the international coalition,” he continued, “[But] we have seen that the threat has increased, not decreased, and harmed us in our own territories when it crossed into our borders. There was no other option but to launch an operation.”
Erdogan vowed to stop his invasion of Syria “when the last terrorist dies.”
Making Erdogan’s comments appear tame, the head of Turkey’s nationalist – and often pro-Erdogan – Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) declared on Tuesday that Turkey would raise its flag over Afrin. “Turkey is not a part of a war in Syria, but it is in a justified war against terrorism,” Devlet Bahceli argued.
In contrast, the head of Turkey’s secular opposition party, the Republican Peoples’ Party (CHP), has derided the idea of invading Afrin city center as lunacy.
“As we did for Operation Euphrates Shield, we supported the military operation in Afrin, too. … However, it is something else to enter the city center of Afrin,” Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu said, according to Hurriyet. “Why would you enter a city center with a population of 500,000 people? How can you distinguish terrorists from others? There can be a bloodbath if we enter the city center.”
Population estimates for the city of Afrin vary greatly. Afrin region was home to an estimated 500,000 people before the Syrian civil war in 2011, but, given its status as one of the few stable areas of Syria before Turkey invaded it, the population may be significantly larger. As it is also positioned on the Turkish border, it is possible many residents preemptively fled, joining the millions of Syrian refugees in Turkey.
Turkish officials claim that more than 1,700 people have died since “Operation Olive Branch” began, all “terrorists.” In a Tuesday report, Anadolu claimed that the “terrorists” killed were all Kurdish separatists or ISIS members. The United States has rejected the idea that any ISIS elements remain in Afrin.
“The operation is being carried out under the framework of Turkey’s rights based on international law, UN Security Council resolutions, its self-defense rights under the UN charter, and respect for Syria’s territorial integrity,” Anadolu quotes the Turkish General Staff, its military leadership, as saying.
The threat to Afrin city appears to be a direct response to Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, who announced through the Syrian government’s official SANA news network that Syrian troops, or at least Assad allies, would join the YPG on the battlefield against Turkey. The Turkish newspaper Hurriyet quotes Erdogan as telling his Justice and Development Party (AKP) this week, “Thanks to the siege, the YPG will have no room for bargaining with the Syrian regime.”
“Popular forces are to arrive in the Afrin area soon to support locals in facing the aggression launched by the Turkish regime on the area since January 20th,” SANA reported. “The Turkish regime has been waging a barbaric aggression on Afrin area for almost a month, using various types of weapons and shells including the internationally-prohibited chlorine gas, killing and injuring hundreds of civilians.”
The Turkish government has denied any use of chemical weapons on Afrin, a violation of international law. Ample evidence exists, much of it displayed before the United Nations, that the Assad regime has used chemical weapons against civilians throughout the civil war.
The YPG has not been historically allied with Assad. The two have largely avoided each other on the battlefield, the YPG focusing on fighting ISIS and Assad focusing on killing civilians in rebel-held areas. Assad has a compelling reason to join the Kurds now, however; Erdogan has explicitly stated that the only reason for a Turkish presence in Syria is “to end the rule of the tyrant Assad.”
The YPG has denied that Syrian troops will join them in Afrin.
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