Secretary of Defense James Mattis Visits Jordan, Turkey, Ukraine

Secretary of Defense James Mattis arrived in Jordan on Sunday, his first stop on a trip that will also include travel to Turkey and Ukraine.

Mattis is scheduled to meet with Jordan’s King Abdullah II and Lt. General Mahmoud Freihat, who chairs Jordan’s Joint Chiefs of Staff. The Defense Department said Mattis will “express U.S. appreciation for Jordanian efforts to combat the Islamic State” and reaffirm America’s commitment to “stand shoulder-to-shoulder with Jordan in facing regional and global challenges.”

Jordan is dealing with a major refugee crisis along its border with Syria where some 50,000 Syrians are stuck in tent cities. Islamic State activity in the area prompted Jordanian airstrikes in response. The United Nations expressed “deep concern” for the refugees, saying they fear for their lives due to the “heightened risk of escalated hostilities” in an “increasingly unsafe” area.

The United Nations is tracking over 650,000 Syrian refugees in Jordan, while the Jordanian government said the total number of refugees is closer to double that amount.

An editorial in Jordan Times on the eve of Mattis’ visit encouraged the Jordanian government to reevaluate its geopolitical priorities, focusing particularly on a somewhat troubled relationship with Saudi Arabia and “better relations with Damascus and Baghdad.”

In other words, Jordan is thinking about the post-ISIS, post-Syrian Civil War era and how it can adjust to the renewed and consolidated power of Syrian dictator Bashar Assad. As the refugee crisis illustrates, Jordan is likely to be hit by the human and economic fallout when Assad sets about remodeling his country and adjusting its population to his ideological taste.

After Jordan, Mattis will fly to Turkey where he will meet with the ministers of defense and foreign affairs along with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. He told reporters that Turkey is “a frontline state against terrorists right there in Syria” and also on the front lines of “dealing with refugees, who are traumatized as any as you’ll ever find in, I think, the history of the world.”

A Pentagon statement said Mattis will emphasize “the steadfast commitment of the United States to Turkey as a NATO ally and strategic partner, seek to collaborate on efforts to advance regional stability, and look for ways to help Turkey address its legitimate security concerns,  including the fight against the PKK.”

The PKK is a violent Marxist Kurdish separatist group in Turkey, an organization designated as terrorists by both the U.S. and Turkish governments. However, Turkey goes much further by insisting that some Kurdish groups allied with the United States in Syria are also allied with the PKK, which makes them terrorists as well. Turkey and the Syrian Kurds have both expressed readiness to fight each other over Syrian territory near the Turkish border as the Islamic State collapses. This is a major headache for U.S. military planners, who have been obliged to position American troops between the Turks and Kurds to stave off a military confrontation.

The U.S. government is also concerned about Turkey’s human rights situation, including the suppression of political dissent and critical media and Turkey’s strained relations with Europe. Also troubling is the increasingly warm relationship between Turkey and Russia, which does not bode well for either American strategic interests or the future of NATO.

Turkey is seen as growing closer to Jordan as well, particularly in light of events in Syria, a fact that surely will not be lost on Secretary of Defense Mattis as he visits both nations.  

Mattis is scheduled to complete his foreign trip by making his first visit as Secretary of Defense to Ukraine, where he will meet with Defense Minister Stepan Poltorak and President Petro Poroshenko. He is due to arrive on August 24, which is Ukraine’s Independence Day. He will express support for Ukraine’s “sovereignty and territorial integrity” and discuss U.S. assistance with training, equipping, and advising the Ukrainian military, according to the Defense Department.

Ukraine, of course, is the major pressure point between the United States and Russia. The current mood in Russia about ending the conflict between the Ukraine government and Russia-backed separatists seems guardedly optimistic. U.S. Special Envoy Kurt Volker will join Mattis during the Secretary of Defense’s visit to discuss “the next steps in diplomatic negotiations to restore Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity” with Ukrainian officials, according to the State Department.