World View: China Locks 'Fire Control Radar' on Japanese Targets

This morning’s key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Bulgaria blames Hizbollah for bus attack killing Israelis
• Lebanon promises to cooperate with Bulgaria’s investigation
• In escalation, China locks its ‘fire control radar’ on Japanese targets
• China accuses Japan of escalating dispute of Senkaku/Diaoyu islands
• Analysis: China/Japan standoff similar to leadup to World War I

Bulgaria blames Hizbollah for bus attack killing Israelis

Burgas Bulgaria bus bombing, July 19, 2012

On July 19 of last year, a young man wearing plaid Bermuda sports, abright blue T-shirt, baseball cap, sunglasses and long hair boarded abus in Burgas, Bulgaria, along with 44 Israeli tourists on their wayto a Black Sea beach-front hotel. A few seconds later, an explosionkilled the bus driver and five Israelis, and injured dozens more.Initial indications pointed to involvement by Iran and Hizbollah, butnothing could be proven at the time. But after months ofinvestigation, Bulgaria on Tuesday accused two Hizbollah agents ofcarrying out the bomb attack:

“There is data showing the financing and connectionbetween Hizbullah and the two suspects.

What can be established as a well-grounded assumption is that thetwo persons whose real identity has been determined belonged tothe military wing of Hizbollah.”

Iran denied any involvement, but Israel accused Hizbollah and Iran ofwaging a “global terror campaign,” saying the Burgas bomb was among aseries of such attacks carried out in Thailand, Kenya, Turkey, India,Azerbaijan, Cyprus and Georgia. Reuters and Spiegel (July, 2012)

Lebanon promises to cooperate with Bulgaria’s investigation

Prime Minister Najib Mikati vowed that Lebanon’s government wouldcooperate with Bulgaria in investigating the involvement of Hizbollahin last July’s bus attack:

“[Lebanon’s government is] ready to cooperate withBulgaria to uncover the circumstances [of the attack].

Lebanon also reiterates its commitment to the security of Bulgariaand all members of the EU. Lebanon trusts the Bulgarian authorityin its investigation and is ready to cooperate to uncover thecircumstances of the issue for the sake of justice.”

It remains to be seen just how much Lebanon’s government will be ableto cooperate, however, since Hizbollah is part of Lebanon’sgovernment. Daily Star (Beirut)

In escalation, China locks its ‘fire control radar’ on Japanese targets

Japan on Tuesday accused China of locking its “fire control radar” ona Japanese destroyer and helicopter in two separate incidents lastmonth. Locking fire control radar on a target is the step that’staken just before a radar-guided “fire and forget” missile is launchedon the target. The radar can track a moving target to guarantee thatthe missile attack will succeed. Since China did not actually pushthe red button that would launch the missile, the locking wasapparently intended as a threat to Japan to back off from its claimsto the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. However, this is a major militaryescalation by the Chinese, because when a vessel detects that it’sbeing targeted by fire control radar, then the captain of that vesselonly has a few seconds to decide whether to return fire. Last month,China issued a directive to the People’s Liberation Army: Get Ready for War, and China continues totake actions that signal that a preemptive Chinese attack is coming.The Asahi Shimbun (Tokyo) and Sydney Morning Herald

China accuses Japan of escalating dispute of Senkaku/Diaoyu islands

China did not comment on the radar locking threat on Tuesday,but instead accused Japan of escalating the dispute of the Senkaku/Diaoyuislands “by setting up a new publicity office aimed at … propagandaissues.”

“[China] stressed that the Diaoyu Islands are China’sinherent territory and so are the surrounding waters, and Chinesemarine surveillance vessels are conducting regular patrols inChinese territorial waters.”

According to Chinese government media,

“China has a much larger population than Japan andthere are many more overseas Chinese than overseas Japanese. Japanis not expected to take a rational attitude toward China. TheChinese public and overseas Chinese should take the initiative andcarry out legal campaigns against Japan.

The time when Japan gained advantages from moves like this haslong gone. China’s retaliatory restrictions have shocked Japan. IfJapan makes provocations once again, it is Japan that is bound tosuffer.”

Global Times (Beijing) and China Daily (Beijing)

Analysis: China/Japan standoff similar to leadup to World War I

There is a striking analogy between China today and Germany beforeWorld War I. The adept leadership of Otto von Bismarck gave way tomuch clumsier political and military leadership by younger generationsin the years before WW I, who encouraged nationalism as an alternativeoutlet for anti-government sentiment. According to analyst GrahamAllison,

“The mechanism in 1914 is instructive. Who couldimagine that Serbian terrorists could kill an archduke no one hadheard of and trigger a great war, at the end of which allcontestants were devastated. My view is that the Chineseleadership has no intention of challenging the US militarily,yet. But what about the hothead nationalists in China orJapan?”

The “hothead nationalists in China and Japan” today are thegenerations corresponding to America’s nihilistic Generation-X.Gulf News / FT

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