World View: Hugo Chavez Likely to Win Fourth Term as President of Venezuela

This morning’s key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Hugo Chavez likely to win fourth term as president of Venezuela
• Israel shoots down unmanned drone arriving from Mediterranean
• Turkey and Syria continue to exchange fire across their border
• World food prices go inexorably higher

Hugo Chavez likely to win fourth term as president of Venezuela

Hugo Chavez campaiging on Friday (AFP)

The vitriolicly anti-American Venezuelan president Hugo Chávezappears to poised to win reelection on Sunday, against his principalopponent, “moderate leftist” Henrique Capriles. Chávez has won heartsand minds by using Venezuela’s oil wealth for social programs for thepoor. Capriles has said that he would halt subsidized oil shipmentsto Cuba, Belarus, Nicaragua and Syria. Venezuela has overtaken SaudiArabia to become number one in the world for proven oil reserves.Chávez has announced plans to increase production and double crudeexports to Asia. His goal is to reduce world dependence on Americanoil, but apparently he also wants to reduce world oil prices forAmerica and everyone else. In recent years Venezuelan oil productionhas fallen due to poor maintenance, low investment and the loss of keyworkers. Plans to open new fields have been repeatedly delayed.The Hindu and Guardian (London)

Israel shoots down unmanned drone arriving from Mediterranean

An unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) that crossed into Israel’s air spaceand flew over settlements and military bases was shot down by Israel’sair force on Saturday morning. At the time that the UAV wasidentified, it was unknown whether it carried an explosive weapon, butexamination of the fragments indicated that it was apparently on areconnaissance mission rather than an attack mission. It is unknownwhere the UAV took off from, or who was responsible, althoughHizbollah is suspected. Jerusalem Post

Turkey and Syria continue to exchange fire across their border

Tensions between Turkey and Syria, once strong allies, continued to beat dangerous levels on Saturday, after mortar shells from Syria landedin rural areas of Turkey, and the Turkish army returned fire in aretaliatory attack. The shells from Syria did not cause any Turkishcasualties, although villagers rushed out of their homes to gather ata safer point in the village. Turkey’s prime minister Recep TayyipErdogan has told Syria not to test Turkey’s “limits and determination”and that his country “was not bluffing” with its warnings. Saturdayis the fourth day that Syrian shells have landed in Turkey. OnWednesday, five people were killed. Zaman (Istanbul)

World food prices go inexorably higher

FAO Food Price Index

Global food prices increased by 1.4% in the month from July to August,according to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Eventhough oil prices are low and rice harvests are plentiful, food pricesshow no signs of leveling off and falling, since they began theiraverage 9% per year average rise, starting in 2002. Food prices arealready at the 2008 peak that resulted in world wide food riots, andare close to returning to their 2011 peaks that triggered the “ArabSpring” in the Mideast. At 9% increases per year, food prices will beat new historic highs by next summer. From the point of view ofGenerational Dynamics, the people who survived the enormous famines ofWorld War II devoted their lives to making sure that it would neverhappen again, and they launched the Green Revolution that producedsharp increases in crop yields in the 1960s and 1970s. However, theyounger generations of Boomers and Gen-Xers with no personalexperience of famine allowed the Green Revolution to peter out in the1990s. In the meantime, the Law of Diminishing Returns is reducingthe effectiveness of fertilizers and insecticides, the tools developedfor the Green Revolution, at the same time that other resources,including groundwater and forests, are being used up. FAO and Bloomberg

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