Mexico’s presidential election is over, and the early results reveal that the winner is Enrique Pena Nieto, the leader of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, which ruled Mexico for 71 years until 2000. Pena Nieto received 38 percent of the vote, while his closest challenger, Mexico City mayor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, had 31 percent. 

For many in and out of Mexico, this is a disturbing result; the Institutional Revolutionary Party was well known for its connections to the drug cartels. Besides being widely accused of stealing the 1988 presidential election, they  are viewed with distrust by those who hoped the cartels’ vicious hold on Mexico, which has led to the loss of 50,000 lives since 2006, when Felipe Calderon was elected, could be thwarted.  Calderon had unsuccessfully tried to fight the cartels with the military.

Obrador refused to hear the fat lady sing, and would not concede, stating:

“We have to represent them as they deserve to be represented, the citizens that have confided in us. We will not, in any way, act in an irresponsible way, we will have all of the information.  And when it is the right time, we will inform the people of Mexico about the result of this election.”

Pena Nieto may well be corrupt; he is no innocent. During his first marriage he had numerous affairs and fathered two children out of wedlock. Despite his party’s reputation, he promised he would not be in bed with the cartels:

“The fight against crime will continue with a new strategy to reduce violence and protect the lives of Mexicans. Let it be clear, with organized crime there will be no pacts or truce.”

But there were skeptics; Barry Carr, an expert on Mexico from Australia’s Latrobe University, said many Mexicans voted for Pena Nieto because they thought his closeness to the cartels would enable him to strike a deal with them:

“I think that we may see, not publicly, but I think we may see an attempt – and I think this is what a lot of Mexicans want – and that we may see the scale of the killings reduced. In other words there may be an implicit deal being done under which there will be less emphasis on pursuing militarily or by police the drug cartels, and there will be an attempt to persuade the drug cartels to reduce the level of killing both of themselves and of other individuals.”

There is no single drug cartel in Mexico; there are many, with various spheres of influence:

It’s clear that the cartels have a government of their own which has no interest in being stymied, whatever the cost.  More than 50,000 people have died just south of our border.  But the violence will inevitably spread northward.  Meanwhile the federal government prevents states like Arizona from protecting themselves. At what point will the rest of America wake up to the imminent threat?