This morning’s key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.

• Russia’s last aircraft carrier puts on feeble PR show with Syria
• Coup scare in Pakistan may force early elections
• Burma (Myanmar) signs peace agreement with Karen ethnic group
• European Union delays Iran oil embargo for six months

Russia’s last aircraft carrier puts on feeble PR show with Syria

Russian carrier, Admiral Kuznetsov, making a port call in Tartus, Syria, January 8 (Moscow Times)

On January 8, a Russian aircraft carrier group led by the Admiral Kuznetsov, visited the port of Tartus on the coast of Syria in the Mediterranean Sea. Syria’s Bashar al-Assad regime made the most of the PR visit as a show of solidarity between Syria and Russia — and indeed, Russia is supply the Assad regime with weapons. But the Kuznetsov is Russia’s last carrier, and is in disrepair, and the sea salvage tug Nikolai Chiker had to shadow the Kuznetsov during its present tour to tow the hapless carrier back home if the main engine breaks down again. Its flight deck was almost empty, and it lacks the capability to defend itself, making it a sitting duck. The Russian ships sped away from Syrian waters within two days, and are expected to return to the safety of home by early February. Jamestown

Coup scare in Pakistan may force early elections

Pakistan appears to have backed away from a feared fourth military coup on Thursday, after the army reacted to the government’s sacking of the defense minister by announcing a new commander for its 111 Brigade, which has historically played a key role in previous military coups. The government is constitutionally scheduled to go to the polls until 2013, but the government has been sufficiently weakened by the power struggle with the army that it may be force to hold elections by the end of January. The government and the army have never had an easy relationship, but tensions began to rise greatly after the U.S. killing of Osama bin Laden on Pakistani soil, near an army base, leading many in the government to believe that the army had known all along that he was there. The Australian

Burma (Myanmar) signs peace agreement with Karen ethnic group

Burma’s government and senior members of the Karen National Union on Thursday (AFP)

The government of Burma (Myanmar) signed a cease fire agreement with the Karen ethnic group, represented by the Karen National Union (KNU), after decades of an off and on civil war. According to a government official, “The president has said we brothers have been angry at each other for 63 years and he asked us to give the KNU what they want. That’s why we came here.” Burma gained independence in 1948, but then had a bloody civil war among different ethnic groups, reaching a climax in 1958. In October, 2007, Burma’s army overreacted to demonstrations by protesters, led by Buddhist monks. Hundreds of activists and citizens were shot dead or burned alive in government crematoriums. Thousands of monks were rounded up and detained. Some were found floating face down in rivers. A new government came to power last March, and it has been trying to reach out to ethnic groups as part of a program of reforms. AFP

When I first started out developing Generational Dynamics, I was puzzled by this question: How come the United States never had a Civil War II, several decades after the Civil War? I finally decided that there were two major reasons: First, there was a generous Reconstruction program (which later served as a model for the Marshall Plan); and second, the war had been fought not along an ethnic or racial (black/white) fault line, but along a geographic (north/south) fault line, and that fault line was largely dissolved by the westward march.

Burma’s civil war was across ethnic fault lines, and those aren’t so easily dissolved. When a country goes from one civil war to the next one decades later, there are often alternating periods of conflict and peace agreements, and that may well be what’s happening now. Burma’s new government seems to be determined to reform, and undoubtedly a major motivation is to not follow the path of China after the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre. It remains to be seen whether that will be successful for long.

European Union delays Iran oil embargo for six months

Global oil prices fell 4% on Thursday, after the European Union announced that an oil embargo, rumored for the end of January, would be postponed six months. Greece, Italy and Spain, all in the midst of economy crises, are heavy purchasers of Iranian oil, and would need additional time to find alternate suppliers. Relations between Iran and West took a new spike downward this week, after the assassination of an Iranian nuclear scientist by an unknown assailant. Iran is accusing Israel of responsibility, and planning retaliation, but analysts point out that Israel is not the only possibility. The Iranians attempted to assassinate the Saudi Arabian ambassador to the United States recently, and the Saudis may have carried out the scientist’s assassination in retaliation. It’s also possible that internal divisions within Iran itself led to the assassination. Reuters