The International Atomic Energy Agency is expected to release a report about Iran’s nuclear program this week. Many nuclear experts and diplomats expect the worst. Israel is getting sketchy, and rumored plans of military operations against the Shiite state are increasing–operations vehemently opposed by Russia.
Iran’s recent foiled plot to assassinate the Saudi Ambassador on U.S. soil exemplifies Iranian defiance against the United States and our ally Saudi Arabia. Their continued influence in Iraq sparks grave concerns among many Iraqi citizens. The Arab Spring uprisings induced by Iranian proxies haunts many Middle Eastern nations. The list of reasons to engage war against Iran is endless, but is war feasible?
Prior to launching Operation Enduring Freedom, the United States could have easily squashed the Ayatollah regime. In fact, the United States and our allies could have defeated Iran while simultaneously conducting operations in Afghanistan. When we entered Iraq and pushed outward to other “red zones” in places like the Horn of Africa, our capabilities swiftly deteriorated.
Today, due to prolonged global military operations, the United States military might is in dire need of rest, recuperation, and repair. Economically, we cannot afford another war which involves conventional assets. Socially, the American people are tired and simply want our service members to come home. Based off these three points, war against Iran does not appear feasible.
So how can the United States and our allies secure national interests against the nuclear seeking Shiite nation state? Clandestine proxy activities could be the answer.
The United State, like our European allies, is broke. Clandestine proxy activities would need money. The nations with the money are also the very nations facing the most austere danger against Iran–Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. If these nations are willing to handsomely pay the United States along with a few of our “friends,” we can, and should, expedite operations against Iran.
An “Arab Spring” is needed in Iran. In 2009, hundreds of thousands protested in the streets of Tehran. This protest was later identified as the Iranian Green Movement. More than 500 persons were arrested in the movement similarly compared to that witnessed in 1979. It was an opportunity the United States and our allies failed to capitalize.
Considering the next Iranian Presidential election will not occur until 2013, it appears the world cannot wait that long to see Ahmadinejad ousted from power. Then again, he is not the real power broker in Iran anyway; he is not the Ayatollah . Something must be done before Iran grows greater intestinal fortitude threatening the world.
After years of lessons learned in fighting counter insurgencies throughout Afghanistan, Iraq, the Horn of Africa, and elsewhere, the United States clandestine services have learned a lot; so have our allies. We understand how critical human sources and assets are, we are better aligned in dealing with nation-state diplomats, and we have honed our tradecraft. Whether we have learned the invaluable lesson about politicians interfering in such operations remains in question.
No matter how sketchy Israel becomes, they will not be capable of fighting Iran alone. The United States and our allies, too, would not withstand a prolonged war against Iran under today’s global economic conundrum. This does not mean a war against Iran is not feasible. It simply implies that with the right tools, the proper alignment, and the necessary monetary allocations, the Iranian regime can be toppled–but only if we leave political correctness at the door and conduct such operations under a unified front.
Do Middle Eastern nations sleep restfully at night, or do they remain awake thinking about Iran? How willing are they to provide billions to the United States and our allies so we can once and for all rid the Iranian people from their evil puppet masters? Hopefully, the Saudis and their neighbors aren’t high on the anti-insomniac drug Zolpidem.
Kerry Patton is a Senior Analyst for WIKISTRAT. He has worked in South America, Africa, the Middle East, Asia, and Europe, focusing on intelligence and security interviewing current and former terrorists, including members of the Taliban. He is the author of “Sociocultural Intelligence: The New Discipline of Intelligence Studies” and the children’s book “American Patriotism.” You can follow him on Facebook.
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