At last Libyans have a chance to do more than merely dream of freedom and a better future. Americans can be proud that they played a role in making this day possible. But, the game in that part of the world is far from over. Things look promising now, but there are many innings left to play out.
Washington’s first impulse with the announcement of triumph in Tripoli is to recalculate what Qaddafi’s downfall does the president’s foreign policy “street-cred” and the future of the Obama Doctrine.
For that reason, the administration would be wise to resist any displays of triumphalism. Bosnia, Kosovo, Iraq, and Afghanistan were all far from over when the “war” was over. For now, the administration must focus on the task at hand: helping the Libyans help themselves. As with most wars, the “after-party” is at least as important as the battle for liberation to secure peace and freedom.
Libya’s troubles are not yet a thing of the past. Qaddafi and cronies could sneak-off into the tribal hinterlands and wage a guerilla campaign. Islamists could still try to establish a beachhead.
Even without these dangers lurking, Libyans face the daunting task of setting up a government, establishing a functioning civil society and restoring a shattered economy, all while demobilizing and disarming militias, the former military, and mercenaries. There is also the ever-risky business of reconciliation with supporters of the old regime.
Stewarding Libya’s new leaders onward will be no easy task. Now that NATO’s mission is done, don’t be surprised if member countries (including Britain, France, Turkey, and Italy) revert to pressing their national agendas. Don’t be shocked if pressing for their separate interests turns the push for freedom from the West into a bit of a muddle.
Likewise, don’t stop worrying about the extremists. So far al Qaeda and its affiliates have been largely occupied elsewhere. They have done little to try to establish a beachhead on the shores of Tripoli. That may change.
For now, peacekeepers don’t seem to be the cards. But if things get worse instead of better, there will no doubt be calls to intervene.
The last thing anyone in the West wants is to see is Libya turn into the next Somalia, but right now no NATO nation seems to have much of an appetite for undertaking a peacekeeping gig. The best way the U.S. and its allies can prevent from having to make that choice later is to pull together now and remain proactively engaged.
There is still a serious need for serious leadership in helping the people of Libya find enduring freedom. The White House argument that “leading from behind” will work just fine fails to convince.
So far, leading from behind seems to mean not much more than watching things unfold and taking credit for things that go right. It is not clear that that kind of effort will secure U.S. interests in the region and be sufficient to help peace, freedom, and prosperity find a place to prosper in North Africa.