There are all sorts of opinions on that matter. And regardless of who makes up the Libyan opposition, the most organized groups are most likely to seize power. But here is some of what we know:
–the rebel’s council (National Transitional Council–NTC) wants Islamic law to be “a source” of legislation in the new Libya. What does this mean? Some believe it means Shariah law is coming to Tripoli. Others contend that this “formulation is fairly standard in the constitutions of Muslim majority states,” and is no big deal. But remember, fanatics tend to rise to the top in these sort of situations. Moderates are usually not willing to do what it takes to eliminate their opponents and competitors. Whoever rises to the to won’t need Western aid. They will have plenty of energy revenue to stay in power.
–NTC members are largely professionals, doctors, lawyers, and professors. But remember: they don’t control the guns. The rebel commanders do. There has been a feud among rebel commanders, and General Younes, a Gaddafi defector, was recently gunned down. Also a power in the military wing is General Khalifa Hifter, a US-based exile with CIA ties.
–the rebel’s fighting forces include hardened Islamists and anti-American extremists who fought against U.S. forces in Afghanistan and Iraq. Rebel commanders admit that some of their fighters have al-Qaeda links.The fighting force is an outgrowth of a group called Islamic Libya Fighting Group, which is a Libyan “mujahadeen force.” Yes, that’s right. We have been supporting a movement that includes former Taliban and Iraqi fighters. Those who think these sort of fighters can’t be “bought off” don’t understand or respect extremist ideologies. Fanatics can’t be “bought off.” What makes them fanatics is precisely the fact that they are willing to give up lives of relative peace and go live in a cave somewhere to fight “infidels” in Afghanistan. Money is not important to them.
So what happens if Libya falls under the control of radical Islamists? For one thing, they will have plenty of money to throw at their dream of a global Islamic revolution. Libya has the ninth largest oil reserves in the world, estimated to be 41.5 billion barrels. That will buy a lot of suicide bombers, advanced weapons, and terrorist recruits.