Syrian President Bashar Assad has been straddling the fence since his regime and long time family rule came under threat in March. First, he sought to quell the public dissenters with good old fashioned Arab force. When the protesters proved numerous and more resilient than expected, spreading from the rural regions to Damascus and Aleppo, he was forced to placate. Albeit, it is own unique way.
Then came international pressure to cease the violence against his people. Due to pressure on its border, Turkey was forced to advise Assad to end the crackdown. Assad had no choice but to at least play the part of a new reformer who was forced to see the light. Under Assad’s blessing, the Baathist lawmakers proposed a draft law that would allow the formation of opposition party. Assad’s conciliatory gestures came and went with little impact on the protesters.
Assad’s new reformed line had little impact on his ruthless nature, too. Assad has continued to target protesters and hundreds have died since his national addresses and proclamations. Now Hama is feeling the brunt of Assad’s wrath.
Ignoring global condemnation, Syria ordered its military to storm through the rebellious city of Hama on Wednesday after three days of shelling. Activists and residents there said that tanks, armored vehicles and snipers had seized the central square, in what appeared to be a decisive step by the embattled president, Bashar al-Assad, to crush opposition to his rule.
The activists and residents of Hama, a historically important center of anti-government resistance in Syria and an incubator of the nearly five-month uprising against Mr. Assad, said the city was under nearly continuous gunfire in the early hours of the day, and they reported many casualties. They said some residents had tried to stop the advancing armored columns with barricades but stood little chance against such superior military might.
Assad’s action are paradoxical. Though he is showing strength and exercising his right as a dictator, his hold on his state and its various apparatuses are being severely weakened. Assad is loosing legitimacy. Killing thousands of his countrymen will not restore it either. A regime like Assad’s must hold absolute control from top down to keep a divided state like Syria from fracturing. Throw in a bad economy and disrupted lives and soon riots could turn into all out revolt. As a consequence, Assad could be facing a monster with many heads.
Syria remains rocked by antiregime protests that have endured since March, and the country may be headed for civil war. That’s because unlike in Egypt or Tunisia, sectarian rivalries are central to Syrian politics. That adds an element of danger to the situation–but also points the way toward how dictator Bashar al-Assad may fall, especially if the West takes the proper initiative.
Syria’s population is 74% Sunni Muslim. Yet the Assad regime is Alawite, an offshoot of Shiite Islam–often considered heretical by orthodox Sunnis–that comprises only 10% or 15% of Syrians. (Also see Pressure Points)
Assad knows he has precious little time to get his house in order before nations like China and Russia side with the US and Europe in the UN. This is his version of “going for broke.” He’d rather walk with a limp for the rest of his days and rule, than hang from a gallows and dead.
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