The bottom-line decision is not surprising, even if it took months to realize. Iraqi security forces, though improving, are still not capable of keeping violence down so that its government can function. There are many hot spots to contend. There is the Kurdish north with aspirations of autonomy and Arab resentment to that. There is always the presence and influence of Moqtada al-Sadr whose party is a major piece of Iraq’s coalition government. Sadr has made his reputation has a fiery anti-US cleric leader who stands opposed to a continued US presence. Most important to US policy makers is the influence Iran plays in that sentiment. Tehran has sought to grow its ties with Iraq’s government. Iran has invested in Iraq’s financial sector and infrastructure; promoted deep trade ties contributed to several investment banking enterprises. Along with that, Iran uses its considerable political and religious influence to steer Iraqi leaders towards its interests.
Iran is a growing concern for the US. Aside from legitimate and lawful agreements with Iraq’s government, it has also dealt under the table to buy off politicians, fund, train, and equip insurgent forces who kill Iraqis and US troops. Tehran’s policy in Iraq has been to accelerate withdraw of US troops by deteriorating the “street” through covert and overt operations. If US troops leave as scheduled at the end of this year, Iran would seize the opportunity to fill the void and further strengthening its position in the region.
However, the news that Iraqi leadership sees the necessity of keeping US troops in Iraq through next year and beyond is a strong indication that they realize the import difference between a US-assisted stand for sovereignty and a Iranian one. Despite Iran’s best efforts, the US’s influence remains stronger than Iran’s. That is worth noting considering the natural influences Iran enjoys over a Western nation like the US. The deal, though, still has some hurdles to clear, as the Washington Post explains.
Iraq’s top political leaders agreed late Tuesday that the Iraqi military needs to continue training programs with U.S. forces, marking the first step in a process that still could take months to resolve.
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Significant details that remain unresolved include the length and focus of any training program, how many U.S. troops such training might require and how Iraqi leaders would formally request and approve a new partnership. Mullen and his colleagues also want legal immunity for any troops who stay behind.