The poppy harvest in A-stan is in; is it time for Thanksgiving? Nah. It’s IED-increase-time. As USA Today reports: “Pentagon expexts IED hits to rise”

From the story:

“We’re at the front edge of the fighting season,” said Lt. Gen. Michael Barbero, who leads the Joint IED Defeat Organization (JIEDDO). “The poppy harvest has been a little delayed this year. … The overall number of IED incidents will increase. As we know, we can safely say that.”

Ironic adverb. We can “safely” say “IED incidents” will increase — “incidents” that occur mainly because troops are under orders to drive and walk the IED-laced roads and by-ways of Afghanistan. As the story reports:

Improvised explosive devices (IEDs) are the No.1 cause of fatalities and injuries to U.S. troops in Afghanistan. The devices have killed 657 U.S. troops and wounded 6,330 since the war began in 2001 through March of this year. Warmer weather and the end of the poppy harvest have generally heralded the beginning of the toughest combat in Afghanistan.

Patrols, particularly foot patrols, are a basic COIN tactic, a specfically stated point of “guidance” (order?) in Gen. Petraeues August 1, 2010 Counterinsurgency Guidance, as noted here. As Petraeus wrote:

Walk. Stop by, don’t drive by. Patrol on foot whenever possible and engage the population. Take off your sunglasses. Situational awareness can be gained only by interacting face to face, not separated by ballistic glass or Oakleys.

COIN doctrine assumes that putting US forces out on the road is a way to “earn their [Afghan] trust.” And “earning their trust” is the linchpin of COIN, and, thus, the linchpin of all US war and nation-building policy in Afghanistan.

It is a cracked linchpin, and it cries out Congressional attention. It is incumbent upon our US Representatives and Senators to investigate whether this tactic of IED-patrols — and other COIN tactics including restrictive ROEs, payola, and reverence for the Koran — are working. Even more important, it is incumbent upon Congress to investigate whether this strategy of “earning their trust” is working. It is time to bring in the generals and the secretary of defense to ask them some real questions for a big, fat change.

Back to the USA Today story. Remember, we have learned to expect “IED incidents” to increase. Now, the general in charge of what is called the Joint IED Defeat Organization (JIEDDO) — catchy acronym, that — explains his mission:

Protecting troops from stepping on bombs has become the top priority, he said.

One quick way to protect them is to curtail if not cancel such patrols while Congress investigates 1) their effectiveness as a tactic in the strategy of earning Afghan trust; 2) the strategy of earning Afghan trust; 3) what (the hell) “Afghan trust” actually means and 4) whether Uncle Sam should be spending $350 million every single day of the year to “earn” it.

But no.