Many former Afghan Mujahedeen have stated time and again that Osama Bin Laden was nothing more than a financier, a figurehead, etc. They believed him to be more like the business executive who would listen to ideas among his counterparts and simply decide how much money was needed to fulfill his colleague’s aspirations–he was a strategist. This was their perception no matter how many Westerners would agree or disagree. The individual to replace Bin Laden is unlikely to mirror his past position.
Just this week, a possible replacement for Bin Laden was discovered–an Egyptian named Saif al-Adel. The Arabian Peninsula is important to many die hard Islamists because of Mecca and Medina–Adel does not come from this land. He may or may not have money but what is known is the fact that he does not come from a monetarily rich family like Bin Laden.
Adel has unequivocally demonstrated from his writings that he has based himself in Iran, Somalia, Afghanistan, Egypt, and elsewhere. This demonstrates his abilities to cooperate and move freely inside numerous rogue regimes. Yes, Bin Laden moved about as well but for different reasons–to sit in refuge and strategize; not to continue with tactical planning which is what Saif al-Adel did in these locations.
Saif al-Adel is a “thinker.” Some believe him to have exceptional intelligence and tactical planning capabilities. He is believed to be the mastermind behind some of Al Qaeda’s more notorious attacks such as the 1998 U.S. Embassy Bombings in Tanzania and Kenya, the Riyadh Bombing, and believed to have served as one of Al Qaeda’s tactical commanders in Somalia during the infamous “Black Hawk Down” incident. Interestingly enough, he has likely killed more fellow Muslims than non-Muslims– something the Western world should consider when dealing with him.
During the reign of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi’s operations in Iraq, it is known that Zarqawi and Adel had a relationship. Zarqawi reigned terror on Iraqi citizens more so than he did on U.S. coalition forces. The terror presented still haunts many Iraqi’s today. In fact, Iraqi’s and Afghans alike often state their hatred for “Arab Fighters,” a reference to Al Qaeda. Their hatred stems from the realization that leaders in Al Qaeda, like Adel and Zarqawi, failed to abide by the Koran, referencing the killings of fellow Muslims and the brutality which they delivered such as beheadings, disembowelments, genitalia mutilation, etc.
If Saif al-Adel truly does become the replacement for Osama Bin Laden, the United States has several opportunities at hand. The greatest opportunity–significant Information Operation campaigns can be used against him and the members of Al Qaeda. It would behoove the United States and our allies to utilize citizens from Iraq and Afghanistan with first-hand accounts of these monsters’ terror to reveal the reality they witnessed onto others.
Osama Bin Laden is likely never to be replaced in full as the strategist he once were. An individual like Saif al-Adel very well could be Al Qaeda’s next best thing–but he is a tactician. He has demonstrated his tactical planning capabilities; however, his strategic planning may be questionable. If he fills the shoes of Bin Laden, he better have really big feet. He is an individual likely to open many opportunities for the United States that can be leveraged not only destroying him–but Al Qaeda as a whole.
Kerry Patton is the Co-Founder of the National Security Leadership Foundation, a non-profit organization pending 501c (3) status. He has worked in South America, Africa, the Middle East, Asia, and Europe, focusing on intelligence and security interviewing current and former terrorists, including members of the Taliban. He is the author of “Sociocultural Intelligence: The New Discipline of Intelligence Studies” and the children’s book “American Patriotism.”