With the death of Osama Bin Laden, the search must continue to seek and destroy Al Qaeda leadership. Many names come to mind but the greatest blow to Al Qaeda would be the killing of Ayman Muhammad Rabaie al-Zawahiri. If he was not with Bin Laden hiding in Abbottabad, where could he be?
There is no question that the close confidants of Bin Laden such as Zawahiri have compartmentalized themselves in an attempt to marginalize multi-kill and or captures of AQ leadership. Compartmentalizing leaders means that they are not physically together yet have a means to operate effectively as a network of terrorists. They spread themselves out and it is likely that many of these High Valued Targets (HVT’s) are still in Pakistan.
Abbottabad is known to be a military town. It is approximately three and a half hours drive to the infamous Torkham Gate border of Nangahar Province, Afghanistan. Some believe Abbottabad to be a similar location to America’s West Point–a place very few would ever believe Bin Laden to find his general abode. It is a location when U.S. military advisors and instructors, were on location, had one thing in mind and that was to train the Pakistani troops–not investigate the whereabouts of Al Qaeda Leadership.
Pakistan, like virtually every country, has numerous locations similar to Abbottabad. But one specific location in Pakistan stands out–Khushab. The strategic similarities between Khushab and Abbottabad are alarming and hopefully our Intelligence Community can see the similarities.
Khushab is the home to one of Pakistan’s leading special weapon systems manufacturing programs, supporting their nuclear arsenal. Pakistani military secure the location, better than any other location in Western Pakistan. When international inspectors go to the location, they have one thing in mind and that is nuclear inspections–not the whereabouts of Al Qaeda leadership.
While Abbottabad is approximately three and a half hours from Torkham Gate, Khushab is approximately four hours from the border of Khost, Afghanistan. Excluding Helmand Province in the south, eastern Afghanistan has been the leading battle zone throughout the War in Afghanistan. Both Nangahar and Khost Provinces are homes to the entry ways for insurgent activities, operating in eastern Afghanistan.
Interestingly enough, Abbottabad is located approximately four hours from Khushab by car. If any of this analysis is correct, it would demonstrate that Al Qaeda leadership sets up its command and control, approximately three to four hours by car, from its tactical battle zones. Not only would this analysis indicate that Pakistan harbors Al Qaeda leadership, they are doing so in some of their most secured military locations.
While this is all speculative, it highlights some rational analysis, which could lead to the kill or capture of more Al Qaeda leaders. The U.S. along with our coalition have rigorously explored and searched the harsh terrain of the Tora Bora and the Hindu Kush mountains– landing in “dry holes.” Now that Abbottabad has been identified and mission number one a success, could Khushab be the home of mission number two?
Kerry Patton has served in the U.S. Defense and Justice departments, and as a contractor within the Homeland Security and State departments. He has worked in South America, Africa, the Middle East, Asia, and Europe, focusing on intelligence and security interviewing current and former terrorists, including members of the Taliban. He is the author of “Sociocultural Intelligence: The New Discipline of Intelligence Studies” and the children’s book “American Patriotism.”