The circumstances in Egypt should in no way, shape, or form be considered a phenomenon. That Islamism is most likely in Egypt’s future is par for the course. There simply is no other foundation, school of thought, or ideology in place to fill the void left from the disposed Mubarak government. It would have been an absolute shock and a ground breaking, historical event if the opposite actually took place. Unfortunately, we live in reality. We cannot negotiate with it and we must conduct ourselves on its terms. It has not left us any other option. Therefore, it is time for the US to prepare a new foreign policy for a New Egypt in particular, and a New Middle East in general.
The Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt’s largest Islamic movement and the founder of Hamas, has set up a network of political parties around the country that eclipse the following of the middle class activists that overthrew the regime. On the extreme fringe of the Brotherhood, Islamic groups linked to al-Qeada are organising from the mosques to fill the vacuum left by the collapse of the dictatorship.
The military-led government already faces accusations that it is bowing to the surge in support for the Muslim movements, something that David Cameron warned of in February when he said Egyptian democracy would be strongly Islamic.
Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, warned on Sunday that the direction of Egyptian politics was anti-Israeli. He told diplomats last week that Egyptian officials – including Nabil al-Arabi, the foreign minister – were pandering to political militants by branding Israel as the “enemy”.(The Telegraph)
Egypt stands a real chance at becoming a rogue state in the mold of Iran. If Islamists, under the leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), take hold of the government and strike a deal with the military, the previous status quo will be erased. The MB will inherent a state that is the most militarily and industrially advanced among the Arab states. Furthermore, the MB has already stated they would not honor the cease fire with Israel. If they grow more militarized this could accelerate an arms race in one the world’s most unstable regions. However the real issue is Egypt’s quite research in weapons of mass destruction. Under the control of the MB, this would obviously have huge geopolitical repercussions. Here are only two scenarios but both are huge in terms of American interests.
- Will a new government keep the Suez Canal, a path for 15,000 ships a year, open to all international shipping? (It’s closing to Israel-bound cargo in 1956 and 1967 brought wars.)
- Will Egypt — which broke the mold of Arab anti-Israel intransigence with its historic 1979 peace treaty with Israel — cut ties with Jerusalem, forcing the Israel Defense Forces to again focus on a southern front? (Rubin)
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