Well Of Course NATO Is Considering Ground Troops

OK, considering may be too strong of a word but the NATO chief sure isn’t ruling it out. That is because the situation in Libya will get worse before it gets worse. Let’s say the rebels are successful in removing Gadaffi, then what? They are going to come together, put their Jeffersonian minds to work, become good civic-minded and rule of law citizens? — that has less chance of working than Harry Reid does in becoming president. The rebel forces in charge in the aftermath will start fighting one another has soon as they stop fighting Gadaffi. Factions will form, alignments will be made, and the strong man to emerge will larger numbers and influence on his side. The others who are fewer in numbers will naturally suffer the consequences. It has all the makings for a nasty civil war and a chance for tribes to carry out retribution against rival tribes. I’ve already went into this, here.

Or, if you like, Gadaffi continues to stay in power and his tanks and artillery continue to pound the rebels. To the point that that the rebellion is crushed and punishment by Gadaffi is meted out to the public in typical Arabic dictator fashion — ‘Duh! It’s called Winning,’ as Charlie Sheen would put it. Much like is shaping up now.

Rebels say ground forces loyal to leader Muammar Qaddafi are closing in on opposition fighters holding the key oil port of Ras Lanouf along the coastal road leading to the capital, heavily shelling the rebels and reversing their advance toward Tripoli.

Warplanes, apparently part of the NATO force that has intervened to weaken the regime’s superior military power, buzzed Wednesday over the zone where the most intense fighting was under way. But no explosions were heard that would indicate new airstrikes.

Qaddafi’s forces hammered rebels with tanks and rockets Tuesday, turning their rapid advance into a panicked retreat in an hourslong battle. The fighting underscored the dilemma facing the U.S. and its allies in Libya: Rebels may be unable to oust Qaddafi militarily unless already contentious international airstrikes go even further in taking out his forces.

Airstrikes alone will not prevent Gadaffi’s army from advancing. The loyal forces have the advantage of being a trained military with tanks, artillery, and rockets. That isn’t to say that the airstrikes have not had an affect. It just hasn’t delivered a knockout punch. So if the goal is to remove Gadaffi, the rebel forces will need help on the ground. And once Gadaffi is removed, the rebel forces will need help on the ground so they don’t start killing one another. Either way, we’re there.

President Obama appears loathsome to the idea of US ground forces in Libya — indeed it is a very bad idea for the US. Arming the rebels as an alternative is an even worse idea, because, again, as I said; if the rebels succeed in removing Gadaffi what happens when several now well armed groups start killing each other? The answer, of course, is NATO and US ground forces establishing a cease fire and playing peace keepers.We can’t do this on the cheap. The Middle East is a black hole for presidents and has plagued every administration since Eisenhower. President Obama is learning nothing is done cheaply and quietly there. What was intended to be a few airstrikes that weakened Gadaffi to the point of capitulation or exile is now spiraling out of control. Obama’s team doesn’t want to face it but they have no real options left.

We should hang a big sign over the Middle East that reads: “Here, if you break it, you buy it.” Maybe then presidential administrations will get the message.

Danger Room | NATO Chief Opens The Door to Libya Ground Troops

The mantra, from President Obama on down, is that ground forces are totally ruled out for Libya. After all, the United Nations Security Council Resolution authorizing the war explicitly rules out any “occupation” forces. But leave it to the top military officer of NATO, which takes over the war on Wednesday, to add an asterisk to that ban. During a Senate hearing on Tuesday, Sen. Jack Reed of Rhode Island asked Adm. James Stavridis about NATO putting forces into “post-Gadhafi” Libya to make sure the country doesn’t fall apart. Stavridis said he “wouldn’t say NATO’s considering it yet.” But because of NATO’s history of putting peacekeepers in the Balkans — as pictured above — “the possibility of a stabilization regime exists.”

So welcome to a new possible “endgame” for Libya. Western troops patrolling Libya’s cities during a a shaky transition after Moammar Gadhafi’s regime has fallen, however that’s supposed to happen. Thousands of NATO troops patrolled Bosnia and Kosovo’s tense streets for years. And Iraq and Afghanistan taught the U.S. and NATO very dearly that fierce insurgent conflict can follow the end of a brutal regime. In fact, it’s the moments after the regime falls that can be the most dangerous of all — especially if well-intentioned foreign troops become an object of local resentment.