President Barack Obama is likely to speak tonight about how the humanitarian crisis in Libya compelled him to commit American resources to stop Gaddafi. (Never mind that there are humanitarian crises all over the Middle East right now.) He’s also likely to say that this is America’s responsibility as part of the international community. (Never mind that this coalition is the smallest in a very long time–much smaller that either Gulf War coalition.) Obama will stick to script and attempt to justify a policy that is broken, goals that are vague, allies that are Islamists, and the lack of any exit-strategy.
What I suggest instead is that he tell the truth: He got played. Obama got maneuvered into getting involved in Libya because the Europeans, particularly the French and Italians, were concerned about their access to oil and a refugee crisis. And as much as Obama wants to believe that he can “hand over” the Libyan operation to the Europeans, the Colin Powell Rule in International Affairs still applies: “If you break it, you fix it.” The United States can’t just bomb Libya and then walk away.
The Europeans played Obama so easily because they appealed to his guilt instincts. Obama sincerely believes that under Bush the United States was a Cowboy Empire, insensitive to the sophisticates in Europe. He has been all to eager to demonstrate that he’s different and willing to allow them to lead. What Obama failed to take into account is that Europe has a history of wanting the fruits of military power without actually having military power. It’s the same with Libya. If things go awry, you can bet that the French will gripe and blame the Americans, cajoling the White House to get more firmly involved.
The Europeans no doubt played on Obama’s meglomania and presented this as an opportunity for him to appear both strong and selfless. Strong because he could use military power! “Selfless” because there are exactly no American interests at stake.
Our enemies and allies are both very shrewd at figuring out what personal qualities they can manipulate in our leaders and using them to their advantage. Sarkozy played Obama perfectly.
Obama, of course, is not going to say any of this tonight. But we can always dream.