One of the leading experts on Saudi Arabia poured cold water on the idea of the Arab uprisings spreading to the Kingdom at a speech Thursday, and finished his presentation with a bizarre rant against the U.S.-Saudi relationship and the “Israeli lobby.”
Robert Lacey, the British bestselling author of two books on Saudi Arabia–the most recent being 2009’s Inside the Kingdom–spoke at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, D.C., on whether the protests that have toppled governments in Tunisia and Egypt (and may be on the verge of toppling Moammar Gaddafi in Libya) would move to Saudi Arabia.
Though Lacey tried to avoid speculating, about an hour into the event he was asked directly whether Tahrir Square would come to Riyadh.
“No, it won’t,” Lacey said. He dismissed “the idea that young Saudis are young hippies,” adding:
“The problem with young Saudis is that they’re too fundamentalist, they’re too conservative. And let’s not forget, the conservative Muslims don’t want democracy. They don’t want rule by people, they want rule by God. They don’t trust the ballot box. What happened when there was voting in Saudi Arabia for the municipal elections? All the bearded ones got returned.”
Lacey said the lack of housing combined with population growth–something the government encourages, despite the lack of resources for it–are “time bomb” issues that must be addressed.
“What I am taking issue with is the idea that Western, democratic solutions to this are what these people are asking for,” Lacey said. “These young people are in my experience deeply conservative.”
Lacey has lived in Saudi Arabia while researching for his books. He said the first time he lived in the Kingdom all the country’s governors were Western-educated technocrats who understood the intricacies of urban planning–an education that went almost completely unappreciated, he said:
“There’s not a single one of those left now. Now they’re all princes [running the cities]. And why are they princes? It’s not because the royal family pushed them. It’s because the local communities said: We want a prince. We don’t want some technocrat who’s got a degree in social management or town planning, we want a prince who can phone the king and get us what we want.”
But Lacey closed his remarks with a comment on the proposed $60 billion U.S.-Saudi arms deal. The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. is reviewing its arms sales to the region amid the uprisings, uncertain at this point which Mideast regimes are stable enough to receive American weapons.
“The $60 billion Saudi deal for F-15 fighters has already cleared Congress but prospective sales of naval ships and missile-defense systems to Saudi Arabia and other regional partners have yet to be completed and could run into congressional hurdles,” according to the Journal.
Lacey told the audience that he was happy to hear the deal might be in trouble, but is disappointed now that it looks to be going through after all. As a Brit, he said, he is resentful of the U.S. “monopolizing all the arms and leaving us Europeans out.”
His consolation, however, was that the arms sale at least stuck it to the “Israeli lobby.” His closing comments pivoted from complaints about the apparently undue influence of pro-Israel lobbyists to claims that the American arms deal enables the U.S. to help quell any possible uprising in and around the Kingdom:
“For the first time, the Israeli lobby had to yield to the fact that [the arms deal] would create 60,000 [American] jobs. Normally there’s no reason for an American congressman to quarrel with the Israeli lobby. Why cause trouble? But now there’s a real alternative: are you going to vote against 60,000 jobs in the country? And the Saudis have shrewdly seized this moment and pushed it through and that’s why I think they are pushing it through. But of course the result of it is that it will turn Saudi Arabia into an American battleship… although these arms are being sold to the Saudis to use, it means that if there is ever really serious trouble in the Middle East, American personnel can come in, as they [did] in 1990 and just take over all weapons systems, operate them and do whatever they have to do. As you know, this new military deal gives helicopter potential to the national guard for the first time and that obviously when it comes to the repression of internal disorder, gives the national guard an enormous extra potential. I think America should bless Saudi Arabia as sustaining your arms industry so generously.”
Has Lacey “gone native,” as they say? It’s difficult to conclude otherwise. His presentation about Saudi Arabia was notable for three recurring themes: insistence that Saudis want less liberalization, not more; resentment of the projection of American power; and conspiratorial thinking about Zionist influence on the American government.
There are two “days of rage” planned for Saudi Arabia this month. And if they amount to anything, the “experts” will be the ones most surprised.
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