Obama's Big Gamble on Egypt

It is now becoming apparent that President Obama is heavily involved in regime change in Egypt. Despite earlier claims that the US was neutral, there is growing evidence that Obama has been working since the earliest stages to oust Hosni Mubarak from power. He’s taking a big strategic gamble by doing so. As one Middle East observer puts it:

“Obama knows that a democratic revolution in the Arab world will have trouble being pro-American. He wants to make sure it won’t be anti-American. The president believes that the more America is portrayed as the force stimulating the change rather being dragged there involuntarily, the greater America’s influence will be on forging the new regime in Egypt, and not only there.”

But this is a huge gamble. It’s the height of arrogance to believe that you can influence regime change without direct involvement and boots on the ground. I’m not suggesting that the US have boots on the ground in Egypt, I’m simply suggesting that regime change from afar is a very hard thing to pull off.

After Mubarak who will lead Egypt? Will they be pro-American? It seems increasingly doubtful. And the ramifications will be enormous. Israel will be forced to become even more aggressive in protecting itself because now it will be literally surrounded by hostile powers. Other moderate Arab states such as Saudi Arabia will be even less likely to stand up to Iran. In Pakistan (remember, they have nuclear weapons!) radicals will no doubt be emboldened. As the same writer puts it:

“Barack Obama is convinced that in a democratic environment, an Arab majority will endorse peace. If he is wrong, America is in trouble – and Israel is in big trouble.”

Great leadership means when it comes to making tough decisions, you take into account what happens if your assumptions are correct as well as if they are wrong.