Israel’s incoming of Military Intelligence (MI), Maj.-Gen. Aviv Kochavi, failed to recognize the imminent threat to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s government on his first briefing before a crucial parliamentary committee – the same day that the unrest erupted in Cairo last week.
In his appearance before the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee (FADC) last week, Kochavi added that MI believed that Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood was not in a position to seize power.
Kochavi said his assessment was that Mubarak would to be able to keep the demonstrations in check and that his regime was stable.
On Sunday morning, FADC Chairman Shaul Mofaz, who served as former defense minister under Ariel Sharon, tried to lower public’s “…assumption that we are capable of knowing everything in time, the same day – and even a day earlier.”
“There are things we know about, things we must know about; would it have been better to have known that something was afoot in Egypt a month and even two months ago?” Mofaz rhetorically asked the Army Radio “Galei Tzahal – Army Waves” morning news-talk program host Razi Barka’i.
“I think these are the type of events that are very hard to estimate, especially when they take place within a young, dynamic society anywhere in the world, and all the more so in states like Egypt,” Mofaz said.
“The MI chief’s status update, as well as his assessment of the strategic issues at stake was very good,” Mofaz said of Kochavi’s briefing before FADC members.
Changes at the top in Egypt would force the IDF to reallocate resources and possibly boost forces along its southern border, a defense official said, according to The Jerusalem Post newspaper on Sunday.
“If a hostile regime takes over in Egypt, the IDF will need to restructure itself and would be pushed to the limit in its ability to deploy adequate resources on the various fronts,” a one defense official put it.
As well, unsubstantiated reports saying that Hamas is exploiting the confusion and unrest to smuggle personnel and arms across the the porous border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt also has perked up Israel’s ears.
Among the veteran program hosts, Barka’i, who is a civilian employee, is known for being a tough, and canny interviewer, and serves as the proverbial “rock in the shoe”, with military and civilian officials.
Army Radio commonly takes an independent stance towards the government in power, and is not a PR mouthpiece for the military, although they draw the line at exposing security-related information.
Media reports midday Sunday said that Mubarak has fled Cairo to his winter home at the southern Sinai resort of Sharm e-Sheikh, the site of numerous trilateral negotiations between Egypt, Israel and the Palestinian Authority.
As well, there are unconfirmed reports that Egyptian tanks rolled into the area – ostensibly in order to protect Mubarak – near a Multinational Forces and Observer base. If true, the maneuver is a clear violation of the stipulations of the peace agreement between Israel and Egypt, achieved and still in effect since their adoption in the 1978 Camp David Accords and the 1979 Treaty of Peace between the two countries.
A source close to the MFO told me that that the base was currently “locked down,” meaning no one was allowed entry or exit. However, he added, the unit was awaiting a busload of MFO personnel as well as a group of Israeli tourists who were both en route there.
“There is some trouble at the outlying city near the base, Sheikh Zewaid,” the source said.
“The big issue they have now is in locking down the base, and the potential – the potential, for an evacuation … there is a potential for that,” according to the source.
Back in Jerusalem, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told his ministers on Sunday that Israel is “following with vigilance the events in Egypt and in our region.”
Netanyahu, in his first public remarks about the riots sweeping Cairo and other cities said allowed that Israel did not want to say or do anything that would destabilize or inflame the already tense situation.
“…at this time, we must show maximum responsibility, restraint and sagacity,” Netanyahu told ministers at the weekly session.
Netanyahu noted that relations between the two countries have “lasted for more than three decades and our objective is to ensure that these relations will continue to exist.”
Netanyahu said he’d conferred with U.S. President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton overnight, about the potentially explosive strategic ramifications of the situation.
Israel is viewing the situation according to the truism, “Better the devil you know than the one you don’t,” as far as Mubarak’s regime goes, and has no interest in seeing it’s end and possible replacement by more hostile entities, like the Muslim Brotherhood.
Netanyahu has spoken about the status in Egypt with Defense Minister Ehud Barak, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, and senior intelligence officials, as well in an emergency session called Saturday night at the Defense Ministry in Tel Aviv. More on that session and it’s implications for Israel are here.
“Our efforts have been intended to continue to preserve stability and security in our region,” Netanyahu said, stressing that ministers should not speak out on the situation – a request that is so far being scrupulously followed by the nominally talkative ministers and other government officials.
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