Mexico Spinning Out of Control?

For a superb look at what is going on in Mexico, read this article (PDF) in the current issue of Orbis published by the Foreign Policy Research Institute. Written by David Danelo, a U.S. Naval Academy graduate who served for seven years as an infantry office in the Marine Corps, it offers a detailed look at how deep-seated the problems in Mexico really are. Danelo, by the way, served near Fallujah with the First Marine Expeditionary Force. Hopefully those skills won’t become necessary when it comes to Mexico. His conclusions are sobering. Shorthand version: things are not going to get better anytime soon. He writes:

“Despite the well-publicized capture of Mexican cartel kingpins, there are no signs that the anarchy south of the border will soon abate. Mexico’s inability to control the cartels has exposed fundamental weaknesses in the Mexican state, particularly in the north. Regional kingpins continue to seek authority over local governments and businesses in addition to control over smuggling routes. These developments are a natural consequence of many forces–including NAFTA, migration, economic inequality, law enforcement corruption, and political repression–that have plagued Mexico for decades. The outcome of this twenty-first century irregular war, which may become even more violent during the course of this decade, will have far reaching consequences for the United States. Barring an unlikely increase in Mexico’s nationwide security capacity, the anarchy will continue unchecked.”